Making better decisions:Utilizing qualitative signed digraphs modeling to enhance aquaculture production technology selection

• Published in: Marine Policy
• Main Authors: King, Andrew S., Elliott, Nicholas G., Macleod, Catriona K., James, Mark A., Dambacher, Jeffrey M.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Imta; Atlantic salmon
• Online Access: https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/making-better-decisions(3fc93d38-6156-46e0-b632-286d0275c859).html; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.01.032; https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/bitstream/10023/18197/1/James_2018_MP_MakingBetterDecisions_AAM.pdf

Understanding causal relationships within complex business environments represents an essential component in a decision-maker's toolset when evaluating alternative aquaculture production technologies. This article assesses the utility of employing signed digraph qualitative modeling to support technology selection decision-making through evaluating the adoption of three alternative production expansion strategies (offshore production, IMTA, or land-based RAS) by the Atlantic salmon industry. Results underlined the benefits of strategically understanding the dynamics of demand growth, emphasized the requirement to address societal concerns early; and indicated that levels of ambiguity are lowest with expansion offshore and highest with land-based RAS growout. The research suggests that signed digraph modeling can provide an objective perspective on the levels of uncertainty and causal linkages within a business environment when exploring aquaculture adoption technology scenarios.