Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus,...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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European Geosciences Union
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/file/4646240/1/Uncertainty%20of%20simulated%20groundwater%20recharge%20at%20different%20global%20warming%20levels%3A%20a%20global-scale%20multi-model%20ensemble%20study https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4646240 |
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ftunnottinghamrr:oai:nottingham-repository.worktribe.com:4646240 2023-05-15T15:15:08+02:00 Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study Reinecke, Robert Trautmann, Tim Burek, Peter Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Seaby Andersen, Lauren Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh 2021-02-19 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/file/4646240/1/Uncertainty%20of%20simulated%20groundwater%20recharge%20at%20different%20global%20warming%20levels%3A%20a%20global-scale%20multi-model%20ensemble%20study https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4646240 unknown European Geosciences Union https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4646240 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Volume 25 Issue 2 Pagination 787-810 doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/file/4646240/1/Uncertainty%20of%20simulated%20groundwater%20recharge%20at%20different%20global%20warming%20levels%3A%20a%20global-scale%20multi-model%20ensemble%20study 1027-5606 doi:10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Geography: Geosciences Geography: Environment & Society Journal Article publishedVersion 2021 ftunnottinghamrr https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 2022-10-13T22:15:15Z Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-Adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM-GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming University of Nottingham: Repository@Nottingham Arctic Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25 2 787 810 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Nottingham: Repository@Nottingham |
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ftunnottinghamrr |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Geography: Geosciences Geography: Environment & Society |
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Geography: Geosciences Geography: Environment & Society Reinecke, Robert Trautmann, Tim Burek, Peter Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Seaby Andersen, Lauren Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
topic_facet |
Geography: Geosciences Geography: Environment & Society |
description |
Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-Adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM-GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reinecke, Robert Trautmann, Tim Burek, Peter Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Seaby Andersen, Lauren Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh |
author_facet |
Reinecke, Robert Trautmann, Tim Burek, Peter Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Seaby Andersen, Lauren Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh |
author_sort |
Reinecke, Robert |
title |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_short |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_full |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_sort |
uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/file/4646240/1/Uncertainty%20of%20simulated%20groundwater%20recharge%20at%20different%20global%20warming%20levels%3A%20a%20global-scale%20multi-model%20ensemble%20study https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4646240 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_relation |
https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4646240 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Volume 25 Issue 2 Pagination 787-810 doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/file/4646240/1/Uncertainty%20of%20simulated%20groundwater%20recharge%20at%20different%20global%20warming%20levels%3A%20a%20global-scale%20multi-model%20ensemble%20study 1027-5606 doi:10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 |
op_rights |
openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
787 |
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810 |
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