Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other fac...
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ftunivzuerich:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:85565 2023-05-15T17:58:02+02:00 Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood Nussbaumer, Souria Huggel, Christian Schaub, Yvonne Walz, Ariane 2013 application/pdf https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/85565/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/85565/1/Local_land-use.pdf https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-85565 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4349-2013 eng eng Copernicus Publications https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/85565/1/Local_land-use.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-85565 doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-4349-2013 urn:issn:1561-8633 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ CC-BY Nussbaumer, Souria; Huggel, Christian; Schaub, Yvonne; Walz, Ariane (2013). Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 1(4):4349-4387. Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Journal Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2013 ftunivzuerich https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-85565 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4349-2013 2022-11-29T21:07:18Z Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing risk of landslides which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available. It is actually a challenge to develop methods to evaluate both, future hazard potential and future damage potential. Here we present an analysis of future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To estimate two hazard scenarios, we used glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling, simple flood modelling and field work. Further we developed a land-use model to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for a time period of 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study corroborates the importance of land-use planning to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivzuerich |
language |
English |
topic |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel |
spellingShingle |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Nussbaumer, Souria Huggel, Christian Schaub, Yvonne Walz, Ariane Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
topic_facet |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel |
description |
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing risk of landslides which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available. It is actually a challenge to develop methods to evaluate both, future hazard potential and future damage potential. Here we present an analysis of future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To estimate two hazard scenarios, we used glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling, simple flood modelling and field work. Further we developed a land-use model to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for a time period of 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study corroborates the importance of land-use planning to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nussbaumer, Souria Huggel, Christian Schaub, Yvonne Walz, Ariane |
author_facet |
Nussbaumer, Souria Huggel, Christian Schaub, Yvonne Walz, Ariane |
author_sort |
Nussbaumer, Souria |
title |
Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
title_short |
Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
title_full |
Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
title_fullStr |
Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
title_full_unstemmed |
Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
title_sort |
local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/85565/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/85565/1/Local_land-use.pdf https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-85565 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4349-2013 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Nussbaumer, Souria; Huggel, Christian; Schaub, Yvonne; Walz, Ariane (2013). Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 1(4):4349-4387. |
op_relation |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/85565/1/Local_land-use.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-85565 doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-4349-2013 urn:issn:1561-8633 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-85565 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4349-2013 |
_version_ |
1766166567526072320 |