Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate
Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean¹’². The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marineterminating outlet glaciers³. Quantifying the...
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ftunivzuerich:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:84782 2024-06-23T07:53:01+00:00 Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate Nick, Faezeh M Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S W 2013 application/pdf https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84782/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84782/1/2013_VieliA_NicketalNature2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-84782 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12068 eng eng Nature Publishing Group https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84782/1/2013_VieliA_NicketalNature2013.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-84782 doi:10.1038/nature12068 urn:issn:0028-0836 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Nick, Faezeh M; Vieli, Andreas; Andersen, Morten Langer; Joughin, Ian; Payne, Antony; Edwards, Tamsin L; Pattyn, Frank; van de Wal, Roderik S W (2013). Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate. Nature, 497(7448):235-238. Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Journal Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2013 ftunivzuerich https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-8478210.1038/nature12068 2024-06-12T00:29:41Z Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean¹’². The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marineterminating outlet glaciers³. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood⁴. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds⁵. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivzuerich |
language |
English |
topic |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel |
spellingShingle |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Nick, Faezeh M Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S W Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
topic_facet |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel |
description |
Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean¹’². The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marineterminating outlet glaciers³. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood⁴. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds⁵. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nick, Faezeh M Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S W |
author_facet |
Nick, Faezeh M Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S W |
author_sort |
Nick, Faezeh M |
title |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_short |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_full |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_sort |
future sea-level rise from greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84782/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84782/1/2013_VieliA_NicketalNature2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-84782 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12068 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nick, Faezeh M; Vieli, Andreas; Andersen, Morten Langer; Joughin, Ian; Payne, Antony; Edwards, Tamsin L; Pattyn, Frank; van de Wal, Roderik S W (2013). Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate. Nature, 497(7448):235-238. |
op_relation |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84782/1/2013_VieliA_NicketalNature2013.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-84782 doi:10.1038/nature12068 urn:issn:0028-0836 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-8478210.1038/nature12068 |
_version_ |
1802644494110162944 |