Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties
Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global a...
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ftunivzuerich:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:84753 2024-09-30T14:44:54+00:00 Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties Mernild, Sebastian H Lipscomb, William H Bahr, David B Radić, Valentina Zemp, Michael 2013 application/pdf https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84753/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84753/1/2013_ZempM_tc-7-1565-2013_Kopie_.pdf https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-84753 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 eng eng Copernicus Publications https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84753/1/2013_ZempM_tc-7-1565-2013_Kopie_.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-84753 doi:10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 urn:issn:1994-0416 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Mernild, Sebastian H; Lipscomb, William H; Bahr, David B; Radić, Valentina; Zemp, Michael (2013). Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties. The Cryosphere, 7(5):1565-1577. Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Journal Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2013 ftunivzuerich https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-8475310.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 2024-09-11T00:49:01Z Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the under-sampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global under-sampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12 % of their area and 38 ± 16 % of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea- level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivzuerich |
language |
English |
topic |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology |
spellingShingle |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Mernild, Sebastian H Lipscomb, William H Bahr, David B Radić, Valentina Zemp, Michael Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
topic_facet |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology |
description |
Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the under-sampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global under-sampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12 % of their area and 38 ± 16 % of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea- level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mernild, Sebastian H Lipscomb, William H Bahr, David B Radić, Valentina Zemp, Michael |
author_facet |
Mernild, Sebastian H Lipscomb, William H Bahr, David B Radić, Valentina Zemp, Michael |
author_sort |
Mernild, Sebastian H |
title |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_short |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_full |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_sort |
global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84753/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84753/1/2013_ZempM_tc-7-1565-2013_Kopie_.pdf https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-84753 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
Mernild, Sebastian H; Lipscomb, William H; Bahr, David B; Radić, Valentina; Zemp, Michael (2013). Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties. The Cryosphere, 7(5):1565-1577. |
op_relation |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/84753/1/2013_ZempM_tc-7-1565-2013_Kopie_.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-84753 doi:10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 urn:issn:1994-0416 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-8475310.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 |
_version_ |
1811645900724895744 |