Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation
By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was tun...
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Copernicus Publications
2008
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ftunivzuerich:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:8201 2024-06-23T07:57:10+00:00 Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation Machguth, Horst Purves, Ross S Oerlemans, Johannes Hoelzle, Martin Paul, Frank 2008-12-08 application/pdf https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/8201/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/8201/9/Machguth_Purves_Exploring_Uncertainty_2008V.pdf http://www.the-cryosphere.net/2/191/2008/tc-2-191-2008.html https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-8201 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-191-2008 eng eng Copernicus Publications https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/8201/9/Machguth_Purves_Exploring_Uncertainty_2008V.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-8201 doi:10.5194/tc-2-191-2008 urn:issn:1994-0416 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Machguth, Horst; Purves, Ross S; Oerlemans, Johannes; Hoelzle, Martin; Paul, Frank (2008). Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation. The Cryosphere, 2(2):191-204. Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Journal Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2008 ftunivzuerich https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-820110.5194/tc-2-191-2008 2024-06-05T00:18:44Z By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was tuned to observed mass balance for the investigated time period and its robustness was tested by comparing observed and modelled mass balance over 11 years, yielding very small deviations. Both systematic and random uncertainties are assigned to twelve input parameters and their respective values estimated from the literature or from available meteorological data sets. The calculated overall uncertainty in the model output is dominated by systematic errors and amounts to 0.7 m w.e. or approximately 10% of total melt over the investigated time span. In order to provide a first order estimate on variability in uncertainty depending on the quality of input data, we conducted a further experiment, calculating overall uncertainty for different levels of uncertainty in measured global radiation and air temperature. Our results show that the output of a well calibrated model is subject to considerable uncertainties, in particular when applied for extrapolation in time and space where systematic errors are likely to be an important issue. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivzuerich |
language |
English |
topic |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel |
spellingShingle |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Machguth, Horst Purves, Ross S Oerlemans, Johannes Hoelzle, Martin Paul, Frank Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
topic_facet |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel |
description |
By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was tuned to observed mass balance for the investigated time period and its robustness was tested by comparing observed and modelled mass balance over 11 years, yielding very small deviations. Both systematic and random uncertainties are assigned to twelve input parameters and their respective values estimated from the literature or from available meteorological data sets. The calculated overall uncertainty in the model output is dominated by systematic errors and amounts to 0.7 m w.e. or approximately 10% of total melt over the investigated time span. In order to provide a first order estimate on variability in uncertainty depending on the quality of input data, we conducted a further experiment, calculating overall uncertainty for different levels of uncertainty in measured global radiation and air temperature. Our results show that the output of a well calibrated model is subject to considerable uncertainties, in particular when applied for extrapolation in time and space where systematic errors are likely to be an important issue. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Machguth, Horst Purves, Ross S Oerlemans, Johannes Hoelzle, Martin Paul, Frank |
author_facet |
Machguth, Horst Purves, Ross S Oerlemans, Johannes Hoelzle, Martin Paul, Frank |
author_sort |
Machguth, Horst |
title |
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
title_short |
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
title_full |
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
title_fullStr |
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
title_sort |
exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with monte carlo simulation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/8201/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/8201/9/Machguth_Purves_Exploring_Uncertainty_2008V.pdf http://www.the-cryosphere.net/2/191/2008/tc-2-191-2008.html https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-8201 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-191-2008 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
Machguth, Horst; Purves, Ross S; Oerlemans, Johannes; Hoelzle, Martin; Paul, Frank (2008). Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation. The Cryosphere, 2(2):191-204. |
op_relation |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/8201/9/Machguth_Purves_Exploring_Uncertainty_2008V.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-8201 doi:10.5194/tc-2-191-2008 urn:issn:1994-0416 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-820110.5194/tc-2-191-2008 |
_version_ |
1802650668432883712 |