Physical impacts of climate change on landslide occurrence and related 8 adaptation

• Main Authors: Huggel, Christian, Khabarov, Nikolay, Korup, Oliver, Obersteiner, Michael
• Other Authors: Clague, John J, Stead, Douglas, Clague, J J ( John J ), Stead, D ( Douglas )
• Format: Book Part
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press 2012
• Subjects: Institute of Geography; 910 Geography & travel; permafrost
• Online Access: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/68356/; https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/68356/1/2012_HuggelC_17_huggel_etal_revised.pdf

This chapter provides a review on current understanding of different effects of climate change on landslides and debris flows in cold, temperate, and tropical mountains. We start with observed impacts of climate change on shallow landslides and debris flows, followed by discussions of rock-slope failures, and the physical processes that make climate an important cause and trigger of landslides. While an increase in extreme precipitation has been observed in many regions worldwide over the past decades, changes in frequency and magnitude of landslides are more difficult to identify. In high mountain regions with snow, glacier and permafrost slope stability is not only sensitive to changes in precipitation but also to changes in temperature. In the European Alps an increase of high alpine rock slope failures has been detected over the past decades and correlates to an increase in mean air temperature. Future projections generally indicate a further increase of extreme precipitation events that are likely to go along with an increase of landslide occurrence. Seasonal variations of precipitation and earlier melt of snow imply changes of landslide seasonality. Changes in sediment supply can furthermore strongly condition debris flow frequency and magnitude as recent studies have shown. We conclude this chapter with a case study, based on a model of a landslide early warning system, that outlines the potential and limitations of adaptation to future changes in precipitation.