Climate, glaciers and permafrost in the Swiss Alps 2050: scenarios, consequences and recommendations

• Main Authors: Haeberli, W, Hohmann, R
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2008
• Subjects: Institute of Geography; 910 Geography & travel; permafrost
• Online Access: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/6025/; https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/6025/10/Haeberli_Hohmann_Climate_Glaciers_2008V.pdf; http://www.blue-europa.org/nicop_proceedings/3%20Vol%201%20(505-752).pdf

Climate scenarios for the time horizon of 2050 in the Swiss Alps as simulated by using high-resolution ensemble modeling indicate most likely changes in temperature /precipitation by + 2°C / + 10% in winter and + 3°C / - 20% in summer. Such a development would lead to the vanishing of about 75% of the existing glacier surface and deep warming of permafrost in mountain peaks. Corresponding impacts would mainly concern rather dramatic changes in landscape appearance, slope stability and the water cycle. The formation of lakes in the forefields of retreating or even collapsing glaciers together with the decreasing stability of rock walls leads to an increasing probability of major rock falls impacting onto water bodies and triggering dangerous flood waves. A special recommendation was therefore provided to systematically assess the safety of natural, artificial and newly forming lakes in the Alps.