Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard...
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Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
2023
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ftunivzuerich:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:233380 2024-10-13T14:08:00+00:00 Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya Sattar, Ashim Allen, Simon Mergili, Martin Haeberli, Wilfried Frey, Holger Kulkarni, Anil V Haritashya, Umesh K Huggel, Christian Goswami, Ajanta Ramsankaran, R A A J 2023-03-01 application/pdf https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/233380/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/233380/1/2023_Frey_JGR_Earth_Surface___2023___Sattar___Modeling_Potential_Glacial_Lake_Outburst_Flood_Process_Chains_and_Effects_From.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jf006826 eng eng Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc. https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/233380/1/2023_Frey_JGR_Earth_Surface___2023___Sattar___Modeling_Potential_Glacial_Lake_Outburst_Flood_Process_Chains_and_Effects_From.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-233380 doi:10.1029/2022jf006826 urn:issn:2169-9003 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Sattar, Ashim; Allen, Simon; Mergili, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried; Frey, Holger; Kulkarni, Anil V; Haritashya, Umesh K; Huggel, Christian; Goswami, Ajanta; Ramsankaran, R A A J (2023). Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 128(3):e2022JF006826. Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Geophysics Journal Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 ftunivzuerich https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jf00682610.5167/uzh-233380 2024-10-02T15:06:31Z Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard for Gepang Gath Lake, Western Himalaya, considering rock and/or ice avalanches cascading into the lake. We consider ground surface temperature and topography to define avalanche source zones located in areas of potentially degrading permafrost. GLOF process chains in current and future scenarios, also considering engineered lake lowering of 10 and 30 m, were evaluated. Here, varied avalanche impact waves, erosion patterns, debris flow hydraulics, and GLOF impacts at Sissu village, under 18 different scenarios were assessed. Authors demonstrated that a larger future lake does not necessarily produce larger GLOF events in Sissu, depending, among other factors, on the location from where the triggering avalanche initiates and strikes the lake. For the largest scenarios, 10 m of lowering reduces the high-intensity zone by 54% and 63% for the current and future scenarios, respectively, but has little effect on the medium-intensity flood zone. Even with 30 m of lake lowering, the Sissu helipad falls in the high-intensity zone under all moderate-to-large scenarios, with severe implications for evacuations and other emergency response actions. The approach can be extended to other glacial lakes to demonstrate the efficiency of lake lowering as an option for GLOF mitigation and enable a robust GLOF hazard and risk assessment. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive Gath Lake ENVELOPE(-98.884,-98.884,58.111,58.111) Glacial Lake ENVELOPE(-129.463,-129.463,58.259,58.259) Indian |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Zurich (UZH): ZORA (Zurich Open Repository and Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivzuerich |
language |
English |
topic |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Geophysics |
spellingShingle |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Geophysics Sattar, Ashim Allen, Simon Mergili, Martin Haeberli, Wilfried Frey, Holger Kulkarni, Anil V Haritashya, Umesh K Huggel, Christian Goswami, Ajanta Ramsankaran, R A A J Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya |
topic_facet |
Institute of Geography 910 Geography & travel Earth-Surface Processes Geophysics |
description |
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard for Gepang Gath Lake, Western Himalaya, considering rock and/or ice avalanches cascading into the lake. We consider ground surface temperature and topography to define avalanche source zones located in areas of potentially degrading permafrost. GLOF process chains in current and future scenarios, also considering engineered lake lowering of 10 and 30 m, were evaluated. Here, varied avalanche impact waves, erosion patterns, debris flow hydraulics, and GLOF impacts at Sissu village, under 18 different scenarios were assessed. Authors demonstrated that a larger future lake does not necessarily produce larger GLOF events in Sissu, depending, among other factors, on the location from where the triggering avalanche initiates and strikes the lake. For the largest scenarios, 10 m of lowering reduces the high-intensity zone by 54% and 63% for the current and future scenarios, respectively, but has little effect on the medium-intensity flood zone. Even with 30 m of lake lowering, the Sissu helipad falls in the high-intensity zone under all moderate-to-large scenarios, with severe implications for evacuations and other emergency response actions. The approach can be extended to other glacial lakes to demonstrate the efficiency of lake lowering as an option for GLOF mitigation and enable a robust GLOF hazard and risk assessment. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sattar, Ashim Allen, Simon Mergili, Martin Haeberli, Wilfried Frey, Holger Kulkarni, Anil V Haritashya, Umesh K Huggel, Christian Goswami, Ajanta Ramsankaran, R A A J |
author_facet |
Sattar, Ashim Allen, Simon Mergili, Martin Haeberli, Wilfried Frey, Holger Kulkarni, Anil V Haritashya, Umesh K Huggel, Christian Goswami, Ajanta Ramsankaran, R A A J |
author_sort |
Sattar, Ashim |
title |
Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya |
title_short |
Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya |
title_full |
Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya |
title_fullStr |
Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya |
title_sort |
modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at gepang gath lake, indian himalaya |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/233380/ https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/233380/1/2023_Frey_JGR_Earth_Surface___2023___Sattar___Modeling_Potential_Glacial_Lake_Outburst_Flood_Process_Chains_and_Effects_From.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jf006826 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-98.884,-98.884,58.111,58.111) ENVELOPE(-129.463,-129.463,58.259,58.259) |
geographic |
Gath Lake Glacial Lake Indian |
geographic_facet |
Gath Lake Glacial Lake Indian |
genre |
Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost |
op_source |
Sattar, Ashim; Allen, Simon; Mergili, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried; Frey, Holger; Kulkarni, Anil V; Haritashya, Umesh K; Huggel, Christian; Goswami, Ajanta; Ramsankaran, R A A J (2023). Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 128(3):e2022JF006826. |
op_relation |
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/233380/1/2023_Frey_JGR_Earth_Surface___2023___Sattar___Modeling_Potential_Glacial_Lake_Outburst_Flood_Process_Chains_and_Effects_From.pdf doi:10.5167/uzh-233380 doi:10.1029/2022jf006826 urn:issn:2169-9003 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jf00682610.5167/uzh-233380 |
_version_ |
1812814577114546176 |