Bayesian inference of spatio-temporal changes of arctic sea ice

• Main Authors: Zhang, Bohai, Cressie, Noel A
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Research Online 2020
• Subjects: Engineering; Science and Technology Studies; Arctic; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://ro.uow.edu.au/eispapers1/4181; https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5208&context=eispapers1

© 2020 International Society for Bayesian Analysis. Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two decades, where a latent dynamic spatio-temporal Gaussian process is used to model the data-dependence through a logit link function. Our ultimate goal is to perform inference on the dynamic spatial behavior of Arctic sea ice over a period of two decades. Physically motivated covariates are assessed using autologistic diagnostics. Our Bayesian spatio-temporal model shows how parameter uncertainty in such a complex hierarchical model can influence spatio-temporal prediction. The posterior distributions of new summary statistics are proposed to detect the changing patterns of Arctic sea ice over two decades since 1997.