Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders
Contemporary climate change has complex effects on animal populations caused by the (non-linear) combination of multiple direct and indirect effects on individuals. These interactions make predictions of the ecological response to climate change challenging; however, predictive models are required t...
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ftunivwindsor:oai:scholar.uwindsor.ca:biologypub-2183 2023-06-11T04:09:15+02:00 Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders Dey, Cody J. Semeniuk, Christina A. D. Iverson, Samuel A. Richardson, Evan McGeachy, David Gilchrist, H. G. 2018-04-01T07:00:00Z application/pdf https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/biologypub/1170 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.007 https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/context/biologypub/article/2183/viewcontent/Dey_et_al.___2018___Forecasting_the_outcome_of_multiple_effects_of_cli.pdf unknown Scholarship at UWindsor https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/biologypub/1170 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.007 https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/context/biologypub/article/2183/viewcontent/Dey_et_al.___2018___Forecasting_the_outcome_of_multiple_effects_of_cli.pdf Biological Sciences Publications Biology Life Sciences text 2018 ftunivwindsor https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.007 2023-05-06T18:52:55Z Contemporary climate change has complex effects on animal populations caused by the (non-linear) combination of multiple direct and indirect effects on individuals. These interactions make predictions of the ecological response to climate change challenging; however, predictive models are required to effectively manage wildlife populations and conserve biodiversity. Here, we demonstrate how agent-based models (ABMs) can be used to predict population responses under multiple effects of climate change. We consider the case of northern common eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis), a culturally and ecologically important seaduck which is experiencing dramatic environmental change due to losses in Arctic sea ice. Our model shows that losses in Arctic sea ice will lead to increases in nest predation by polar bears in areas where these species are sympatric. However, climate-mediated increases in breeding propensity and clutch size could have a large positive effect on eider population size. When considered together, these effects are predicted to result in a relatively stable eider population size over a 50-year period. Additionally, assuming eider populations are influenced by climate change in the manner proposed in this study, our model suggests that future eider populations will not be more susceptible to extrinsic perturbations (e.g. severe weather events, disease outbreaks) than were historical populations. As a result, our study demonstrates increasing climatic suitability and increasing nest predation will not lead to major changes in population size in northern common eiders, and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple, interacting effects on wildlife populations experiencing climate change. Text Arctic Climate change Sea ice Somateria mollissima University of Windsor, Ontario: Scholarship at UWindsor Arctic Biological Conservation 220 94 103 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Windsor, Ontario: Scholarship at UWindsor |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwindsor |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Biology Life Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Biology Life Sciences Dey, Cody J. Semeniuk, Christina A. D. Iverson, Samuel A. Richardson, Evan McGeachy, David Gilchrist, H. G. Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
topic_facet |
Biology Life Sciences |
description |
Contemporary climate change has complex effects on animal populations caused by the (non-linear) combination of multiple direct and indirect effects on individuals. These interactions make predictions of the ecological response to climate change challenging; however, predictive models are required to effectively manage wildlife populations and conserve biodiversity. Here, we demonstrate how agent-based models (ABMs) can be used to predict population responses under multiple effects of climate change. We consider the case of northern common eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis), a culturally and ecologically important seaduck which is experiencing dramatic environmental change due to losses in Arctic sea ice. Our model shows that losses in Arctic sea ice will lead to increases in nest predation by polar bears in areas where these species are sympatric. However, climate-mediated increases in breeding propensity and clutch size could have a large positive effect on eider population size. When considered together, these effects are predicted to result in a relatively stable eider population size over a 50-year period. Additionally, assuming eider populations are influenced by climate change in the manner proposed in this study, our model suggests that future eider populations will not be more susceptible to extrinsic perturbations (e.g. severe weather events, disease outbreaks) than were historical populations. As a result, our study demonstrates increasing climatic suitability and increasing nest predation will not lead to major changes in population size in northern common eiders, and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple, interacting effects on wildlife populations experiencing climate change. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dey, Cody J. Semeniuk, Christina A. D. Iverson, Samuel A. Richardson, Evan McGeachy, David Gilchrist, H. G. |
author_facet |
Dey, Cody J. Semeniuk, Christina A. D. Iverson, Samuel A. Richardson, Evan McGeachy, David Gilchrist, H. G. |
author_sort |
Dey, Cody J. |
title |
Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
title_short |
Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
title_full |
Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
title_sort |
forecasting the outcome of multiple effects of climate change on northern common eiders |
publisher |
Scholarship at UWindsor |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/biologypub/1170 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.007 https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/context/biologypub/article/2183/viewcontent/Dey_et_al.___2018___Forecasting_the_outcome_of_multiple_effects_of_cli.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice Somateria mollissima |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice Somateria mollissima |
op_source |
Biological Sciences Publications |
op_relation |
https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/biologypub/1170 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.007 https://scholar.uwindsor.ca/context/biologypub/article/2183/viewcontent/Dey_et_al.___2018___Forecasting_the_outcome_of_multiple_effects_of_cli.pdf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.007 |
container_title |
Biological Conservation |
container_volume |
220 |
container_start_page |
94 |
op_container_end_page |
103 |
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1768383014553780224 |