Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model
Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arc...
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ftunivwestsyd:oai:researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au:uws_59867 2023-05-15T13:10:57+02:00 Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A. Mokhov, Igor I. Semenov, Vladimir A. Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Rinke, Annette 2021 print 15 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:59867 eng eng U.K., Institute of Physics Publishing Environmental Research Letters--1748-9326 Vol. 16 Issue. 6 No. 064076 Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. CC-BY XXXXXX - Unknown journal article Text 2021 ftunivwestsyd https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 2021-09-06T22:26:00Z Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summertime periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct Arctic Arctic Ocean Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064076 |
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University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct |
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XXXXXX - Unknown Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A. Mokhov, Igor I. Semenov, Vladimir A. Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Rinke, Annette Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
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description |
Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summertime periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A. Mokhov, Igor I. Semenov, Vladimir A. Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Rinke, Annette |
author_facet |
Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A. Mokhov, Igor I. Semenov, Vladimir A. Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Rinke, Annette |
author_sort |
Akperov, Mirseid |
title |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_short |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_full |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_fullStr |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_sort |
responses of arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional earth system model |
publisher |
U.K., Institute of Physics Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:59867 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters--1748-9326 Vol. 16 Issue. 6 No. 064076 |
op_rights |
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
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064076 |
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