Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary p...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48524 |
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ftunivwestsyd:oai:researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au:uws_48524 2023-05-15T17:56:23+02:00 Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles D. MacDougall, Andrew H. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (Host institution) 2017 print 17 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48524 eng eng U.S., Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences--2169-8953--2169-8961 Vol. 122 Issue. 2 No. pp: 430-446 XXXXXX - Unknown atmospheric models latitude climatic changes permafrost journal article 2017 ftunivwestsyd https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 2020-12-05T17:54:50Z Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246±6gCm_2 yr_1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g Cm_2 yr_1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g Cm_2 yr_1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 122 2 430 446 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwestsyd |
language |
English |
topic |
XXXXXX - Unknown atmospheric models latitude climatic changes permafrost |
spellingShingle |
XXXXXX - Unknown atmospheric models latitude climatic changes permafrost Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles D. MacDougall, Andrew H. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
topic_facet |
XXXXXX - Unknown atmospheric models latitude climatic changes permafrost |
description |
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246±6gCm_2 yr_1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g Cm_2 yr_1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g Cm_2 yr_1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change. |
author2 |
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (Host institution) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles D. MacDougall, Andrew H. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi |
author_facet |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles D. MacDougall, Andrew H. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi |
author_sort |
Xia, Jianyang |
title |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_short |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_full |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_fullStr |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_sort |
terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
publisher |
U.S., Wiley-Blackwell Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48524 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences--2169-8953--2169-8961 Vol. 122 Issue. 2 No. pp: 430-446 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
122 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
430 |
op_container_end_page |
446 |
_version_ |
1766164543796412416 |