Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability
In this study, the impact of coupling and initializing the leaf area index from the dynamic vegetation model Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) is analyzed on skill of decadal predictions in the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice model, the European Consortium Earth S...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48486 |
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ftunivwestsyd:oai:researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au:uws_48486 2023-05-15T18:18:34+02:00 Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability Weiss, Martina Miller, Paul A. Van den Hurk, Bart J. Van Noije, Twan P. Stefanescu, Simona E. Haarsma, Reindert J. Van Ulft, Lambertus H. Hazeleger, Wilco Le Sager, Philippe Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Schurgers, Guy Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (Host institution) 2014 print 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48486 eng eng U.S., American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 Vol. 27 Issue. 22 No. pp: 8563-8577 XXXXXX - Unknown plants atmospheric temperature climatology journal article 2014 ftunivwestsyd https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1 2020-12-05T17:54:37Z In this study, the impact of coupling and initializing the leaf area index from the dynamic vegetation model Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) is analyzed on skill of decadal predictions in the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice model, the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth). Similar to the impact of initializing the model with the observed oceanic state, initializing the leaf area index (LAI) fields obtained from an offline LPJ-GUESS simulation forced by the observed atmospheric state leads to a systematic drift.A different treatment of the water and soil moisture budget in LPJ-GUESS is a likely cause of this drift. The coupled system reduces the cold bias of the reference model over land by reducing LAI (and the associated evaporative cooling), particularly outside the growing season. The coupling with the interactive vegetation module implies more degrees of freedom in the coupled model, which generates more noise that can mask a portion of the extra signal that is generated. The forecast reliability improves marginally, particularly early in the forecast. Ranked probability skill scores are also improved slightly in most areas analyzed, but the signal is not fully coherent over the forecast interval because of the relatively low number of ensemble members. Methods to remove the LAI drift and allow coupling of other variables probably need to be implemented before significant forecast skill can be expected. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct Journal of Climate 27 22 8563 8577 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwestsyd |
language |
English |
topic |
XXXXXX - Unknown plants atmospheric temperature climatology |
spellingShingle |
XXXXXX - Unknown plants atmospheric temperature climatology Weiss, Martina Miller, Paul A. Van den Hurk, Bart J. Van Noije, Twan P. Stefanescu, Simona E. Haarsma, Reindert J. Van Ulft, Lambertus H. Hazeleger, Wilco Le Sager, Philippe Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Schurgers, Guy Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
topic_facet |
XXXXXX - Unknown plants atmospheric temperature climatology |
description |
In this study, the impact of coupling and initializing the leaf area index from the dynamic vegetation model Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) is analyzed on skill of decadal predictions in the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice model, the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth). Similar to the impact of initializing the model with the observed oceanic state, initializing the leaf area index (LAI) fields obtained from an offline LPJ-GUESS simulation forced by the observed atmospheric state leads to a systematic drift.A different treatment of the water and soil moisture budget in LPJ-GUESS is a likely cause of this drift. The coupled system reduces the cold bias of the reference model over land by reducing LAI (and the associated evaporative cooling), particularly outside the growing season. The coupling with the interactive vegetation module implies more degrees of freedom in the coupled model, which generates more noise that can mask a portion of the extra signal that is generated. The forecast reliability improves marginally, particularly early in the forecast. Ranked probability skill scores are also improved slightly in most areas analyzed, but the signal is not fully coherent over the forecast interval because of the relatively low number of ensemble members. Methods to remove the LAI drift and allow coupling of other variables probably need to be implemented before significant forecast skill can be expected. |
author2 |
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (Host institution) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Weiss, Martina Miller, Paul A. Van den Hurk, Bart J. Van Noije, Twan P. Stefanescu, Simona E. Haarsma, Reindert J. Van Ulft, Lambertus H. Hazeleger, Wilco Le Sager, Philippe Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Schurgers, Guy |
author_facet |
Weiss, Martina Miller, Paul A. Van den Hurk, Bart J. Van Noije, Twan P. Stefanescu, Simona E. Haarsma, Reindert J. Van Ulft, Lambertus H. Hazeleger, Wilco Le Sager, Philippe Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Schurgers, Guy |
author_sort |
Weiss, Martina |
title |
Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
title_short |
Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
title_full |
Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
title_fullStr |
Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
title_sort |
contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability |
publisher |
U.S., American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48486 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 Vol. 27 Issue. 22 No. pp: 8563-8577 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
8563 |
op_container_end_page |
8577 |
_version_ |
1766195183816278016 |