Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafros...
Published in: | Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
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U.S., Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
2016
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48453 |
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ftunivwestsyd:oai:researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au:uws_48453 2023-05-15T17:55:28+02:00 Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 McGuire, A. David Koven, Charles D. Lawrence, David M. Clein, Joy S. Xia, Jiangyang Beer, Christian Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Jafarov, Elchin E. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey S. Nicolsky, Dmitry Y. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Ekici, Altug Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Luo, Yiqi Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schadel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin M. Schuur, Edward A. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Zhuang, Qianlai Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (Host institution) 2016 print 23 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48453 eng eng U.S., Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Global Biogeochemical Cycles--0886-6236--1944-9224 Vol. 30 Issue. 7 No. pp: 1015-1037 XXXXXX - Unknown permafrost carbon cycle (biogeochemistry) carbon sequestration climatic changes Northern Hemisphere journal article 2016 ftunivwestsyd https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 2020-12-05T17:54:37Z A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr_1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr_1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct Global Biogeochemical Cycles 30 7 1015 1037 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research Direct |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwestsyd |
language |
English |
topic |
XXXXXX - Unknown permafrost carbon cycle (biogeochemistry) carbon sequestration climatic changes Northern Hemisphere |
spellingShingle |
XXXXXX - Unknown permafrost carbon cycle (biogeochemistry) carbon sequestration climatic changes Northern Hemisphere McGuire, A. David Koven, Charles D. Lawrence, David M. Clein, Joy S. Xia, Jiangyang Beer, Christian Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Jafarov, Elchin E. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey S. Nicolsky, Dmitry Y. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Ekici, Altug Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Luo, Yiqi Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schadel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin M. Schuur, Edward A. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Zhuang, Qianlai Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
topic_facet |
XXXXXX - Unknown permafrost carbon cycle (biogeochemistry) carbon sequestration climatic changes Northern Hemisphere |
description |
A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr_1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr_1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models. |
author2 |
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (Host institution) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
McGuire, A. David Koven, Charles D. Lawrence, David M. Clein, Joy S. Xia, Jiangyang Beer, Christian Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Jafarov, Elchin E. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey S. Nicolsky, Dmitry Y. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Ekici, Altug Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Luo, Yiqi Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schadel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin M. Schuur, Edward A. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Zhuang, Qianlai |
author_facet |
McGuire, A. David Koven, Charles D. Lawrence, David M. Clein, Joy S. Xia, Jiangyang Beer, Christian Burke, Eleanor J. Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Jafarov, Elchin E. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey S. Nicolsky, Dmitry Y. Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Ekici, Altug Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Luo, Yiqi Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schadel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin M. Schuur, Edward A. Smith, Benjamin (R19508) Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Zhuang, Qianlai |
author_sort |
McGuire, A. David |
title |
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
title_short |
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
title_full |
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
title_fullStr |
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
title_sort |
variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 |
publisher |
U.S., Wiley-Blackwell Publishing |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48453 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
Global Biogeochemical Cycles--0886-6236--1944-9224 Vol. 30 Issue. 7 No. pp: 1015-1037 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 |
container_title |
Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1015 |
op_container_end_page |
1037 |
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1766163413553119232 |