Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

• Main Author: Apaloo, Jotham
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: University of Waterloo 2013
• Subjects: rock glacier; weather generator; water resources; mountain cryosphere; permafrost; Geography; Ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10012/8142

Snow and glaciers are considered the most important sources of the estimated 32-60% of global water resources which are provided by mountains. Consequently, snow and glaciers have regularly been the focus of climate change studies in mountain regions. Rock glaciers are a type of ice-debris landform characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of the hydrological significance of rock glaciers is increasing and is of particular relevance to the Arid Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers by an order of magnitude. Little research exists on the hydrological significance of rock glaciers beyond potential water storage capacities and their runoff pathways. Additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explored the feasibility of utilizing the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological dynamics of rock glaciers under several climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in studies of rock glaciers. Weather data for a reference (REF) scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985 to 2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the REF scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations. Air temperature had substantial inaccuracies with mean annual air temperature (MAAT) cooler by 1.82 C due to negative temperature biases in summer months which are attributed to difficulties in estimating parameters of the weather generator model caused by local climatic factors. The influence of climate change was also examined. Data for 8 climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. MAAT in the climate ...