Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Lake Ice Classification from Optical Remote Sensing Data

• Main Author: Wu, Yuhao
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: University of Waterloo 2020
• Subjects: lake ice; classification; machine learning; MODIS; Arctic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10012/15975

The topic of lake ice cover mapping from satellite remote sensing data has gained interest in recent years since it allows the extent of lake ice and the dynamics of ice phenology over large areas to be monitored. Mapping lake ice extent can record the loss of the perennial ice cover for lakes located in the High Arctic. Moreover, ice phenology dates, retrieved from lake ice maps, are useful for assessing long-term trends and variability in climate, particularly due to their sensitivity to changes in near-surface air temperature. However, existing knowledge-driven (threshold-based) retrieval algorithms for lake ice-water classification that use top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance products do not perform well under the condition of large solar zenith angles, resulting in low TOA reflectance. Machine learning (ML) techniques have received considerable attention in the remote sensing field for the past several decades, but they have not yet been applied in lake ice classification from optical remote sensing imagery. Therefore, this research has evaluated the capability of ML classifiers to enhance lake ice mapping using multispectral optical remote sensing data (MODIS L1B (TOA) product). Chapter 3, the main manuscript of this thesis, presents an investigation of four ML classifiers (i.e. multinomial logistic regression, MLR; support vector machine, SVM; random forest, RF; gradient boosting trees, GBT) in lake ice classification. Results are reported using 17 lakes located in the Northern Hemisphere, which represent different characteristics regarding area, altitude, freezing frequency, and ice cover duration. According to the overall accuracy assessment using a random k-fold cross-validation (k = 100), all ML classifiers were able to produce classification accuracies above 94%, and RF and GBT provided above 98% classification accuracies. Moreover, the RF and GBT algorithms provided a more visually accurate depiction of lake ice cover under challenging conditions (i.e., high solar zenith angles, black ice, and ...