The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030
Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to...
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ftunivwaikato:oai:researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz:10289/6413 2023-05-15T17:33:32+02:00 The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna 2012-08 https://hdl.handle.net/10289/6413 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 en eng Elsevier Journal of Asian Economics http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007812000206 Anderson, K. & Strutt, A. (2012). The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030. Journal of Asian Economics 23(4), 303-323. https://hdl.handle.net/10289/6413 doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade Intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes Journal Article 2012 ftunivwaikato https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 2022-03-29T15:12:26Z Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic The University of Waikato: Research Commons Journal of Asian Economics 23 4 303 323 |
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The University of Waikato: Research Commons |
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ftunivwaikato |
language |
English |
topic |
global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade Intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes |
spellingShingle |
global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade Intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 |
topic_facet |
global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade Intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes |
description |
Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna |
author_facet |
Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna |
author_sort |
Anderson, Kym |
title |
The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 |
title_short |
The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 |
title_full |
The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 |
title_fullStr |
The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 |
title_sort |
changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10289/6413 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Journal of Asian Economics http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007812000206 Anderson, K. & Strutt, A. (2012). The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030. Journal of Asian Economics 23(4), 303-323. https://hdl.handle.net/10289/6413 doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 |
container_title |
Journal of Asian Economics |
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23 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
303 |
op_container_end_page |
323 |
_version_ |
1766132062084923392 |