Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial le...
Published in: | Science Advances |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/amplified-seasonality-in-western-europe-in-a-warmer-world https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 |
id |
ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/630848 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/630848 2024-09-15T18:08:07+00:00 Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin 2024 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/amplified-seasonality-in-western-europe-in-a-warmer-world https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/659763 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/amplified-seasonality-in-western-europe-in-a-warmer-world doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research Science Advances 10 (2024) 20 ISSN: 2375-2548 Life Science Article/Letter to editor 2024 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 2024-08-21T01:19:00Z Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Science Advances 10 20 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Life Science |
spellingShingle |
Life Science de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
topic_facet |
Life Science |
description |
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin |
author_facet |
de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin |
author_sort |
de Winter, Niels J. |
title |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_short |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_full |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_fullStr |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_sort |
amplified seasonality in western europe in a warmer world |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/amplified-seasonality-in-western-europe-in-a-warmer-world https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 |
genre |
Global warming |
genre_facet |
Global warming |
op_source |
Science Advances 10 (2024) 20 ISSN: 2375-2548 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/659763 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/amplified-seasonality-in-western-europe-in-a-warmer-world doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
20 |
_version_ |
1810445466197819392 |