Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/626979 2024-04-28T08:35:02+00:00 Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia Mentzel, Sophie Nathan, Rory Noyes, Pamela Brix, Kevin V. Moe, S.J. Rohr, Jason R. Verheyen, Julie van den Brink, Paul J. Stauber, Jennifer 2024 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/evaluating-the-effects-of-climate-change-and-chemical-physical-an https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4871 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/650124 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/evaluating-the-effects-of-climate-change-and-chemical-physical-an doi:10.1002/ieam.4871 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 20 (2024) 2 ISSN: 1551-3793 Adverse outcome pathways Bayesian network Conceptual model Risk assessment Article/Letter to editor 2024 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4871 2024-04-03T14:14:54Z An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay–Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975–2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–18. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 20 2 401 418 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Adverse outcome pathways Bayesian network Conceptual model Risk assessment |
spellingShingle |
Adverse outcome pathways Bayesian network Conceptual model Risk assessment Mentzel, Sophie Nathan, Rory Noyes, Pamela Brix, Kevin V. Moe, S.J. Rohr, Jason R. Verheyen, Julie van den Brink, Paul J. Stauber, Jennifer Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia |
topic_facet |
Adverse outcome pathways Bayesian network Conceptual model Risk assessment |
description |
An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay–Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975–2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–18. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mentzel, Sophie Nathan, Rory Noyes, Pamela Brix, Kevin V. Moe, S.J. Rohr, Jason R. Verheyen, Julie van den Brink, Paul J. Stauber, Jennifer |
author_facet |
Mentzel, Sophie Nathan, Rory Noyes, Pamela Brix, Kevin V. Moe, S.J. Rohr, Jason R. Verheyen, Julie van den Brink, Paul J. Stauber, Jennifer |
author_sort |
Mentzel, Sophie |
title |
Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia |
title_short |
Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia |
title_full |
Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia |
title_sort |
evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs : a case study in the great barrier reef, australia |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/evaluating-the-effects-of-climate-change-and-chemical-physical-an https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4871 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 20 (2024) 2 ISSN: 1551-3793 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/650124 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/evaluating-the-effects-of-climate-change-and-chemical-physical-an doi:10.1002/ieam.4871 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4871 |
container_title |
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
401 |
op_container_end_page |
418 |
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1797591502360150016 |