River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes
Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate chan...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/622053 2024-01-21T10:08:54+01:00 River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes Miranda, Pedro Torres de Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Araújo Gama, Cléber Henrique Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho 2023 text/html https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/river-discharge-in-south-america-agreement-and-contradictions-bet https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/643188 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/river-discharge-in-south-america-agreement-and-contradictions-bet doi:10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hidricos 28 (2023) ISSN: 2318-0331 Climate change impacts Discharge alteration Robustness South America info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085 2023-12-27T23:12:48Z Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate change. Although crucial, this kind of analysis has been overlooked in most climate change assessments, for instance in South America. This study assesses the robustness and reliability of river discharge scenarios by comparing them with observed and modelled data. Areas where current changes and scenarios agree are more likely to experience changes and, therefore, water planners should pay special attention to them. Tocantins-Araguaia, São Francisco, Western Northeast Atlantic and upper La Plata basins agreed with a discharge decrease, indicating that climate change should be prioritized in planning. Orinoco and upper-western Amazon basins showed strong disagreement between recent and projected discharge alterations, with positive change in last decades, showing that scenarios in these regions should be carefully interpreted. With this, water planners could interpret Northeastern and upper-central South America as presenting more likely scenarios in comparison to Amazon and Orinoco basins. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library RBRH 28 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change impacts Discharge alteration Robustness South America |
spellingShingle |
Climate change impacts Discharge alteration Robustness South America Miranda, Pedro Torres de Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Araújo Gama, Cléber Henrique Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
topic_facet |
Climate change impacts Discharge alteration Robustness South America |
description |
Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate change. Although crucial, this kind of analysis has been overlooked in most climate change assessments, for instance in South America. This study assesses the robustness and reliability of river discharge scenarios by comparing them with observed and modelled data. Areas where current changes and scenarios agree are more likely to experience changes and, therefore, water planners should pay special attention to them. Tocantins-Araguaia, São Francisco, Western Northeast Atlantic and upper La Plata basins agreed with a discharge decrease, indicating that climate change should be prioritized in planning. Orinoco and upper-western Amazon basins showed strong disagreement between recent and projected discharge alterations, with positive change in last decades, showing that scenarios in these regions should be carefully interpreted. With this, water planners could interpret Northeastern and upper-central South America as presenting more likely scenarios in comparison to Amazon and Orinoco basins. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Miranda, Pedro Torres de Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Araújo Gama, Cléber Henrique Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho |
author_facet |
Miranda, Pedro Torres de Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Araújo Gama, Cléber Henrique Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho |
author_sort |
Miranda, Pedro Torres |
title |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_short |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_full |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_fullStr |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_sort |
river discharge in south america : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/river-discharge-in-south-america-agreement-and-contradictions-bet https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085 |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hidricos 28 (2023) ISSN: 2318-0331 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/643188 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/river-discharge-in-south-america-agreement-and-contradictions-bet doi:10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085 |
container_title |
RBRH |
container_volume |
28 |
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1788699786744954880 |