Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2
Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase in the interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain to what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to the projected IAV increase of PMT. We...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-atmospheric-rivers-on-future-poleward-moisture-transpor https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038926 |
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/619460 2024-04-28T08:07:19+00:00 Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 Kolbe, M. Sonnemans, J.P.J. Bintanja, R. van der Linden, E.C. van der Wiel, K. Whan, K. Benedict, I. 2023 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-atmospheric-rivers-on-future-poleward-moisture-transpor https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038926 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/639229 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-atmospheric-rivers-on-future-poleward-moisture-transpor doi:10.1029/2023JD038926 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128 (2023) 18 ISSN: 2169-897X Arctic climate atmospheric rivers interannual variability poleward moisture transport precipitation sea ice Article/Letter to editor 2023 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038926 2024-04-03T14:26:15Z Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase in the interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain to what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to the projected IAV increase of PMT. We analyzed large-ensemble climate simulations to (a) explore the link between PMT and ARs in the present-day (PD) and in two warmer climates (+2 and +3°C compared to pre-industrial global mean temperature), (b) assess the dynamic contribution to changes in future ARs, and (c) analyze the effect of ARs on Arctic climate on interannual timescales. We find that the share of AR-related PMT (ARPMT) to PMT increases from 42% in the PD to 53% in the +3°C climate. Our results show that the mean increases in AR-frequency and intensity are mainly caused by higher atmospheric moisture levels, while dynamic variability regulates regional ARs on an interannual basis. Notably, the amount of ARs reaching the Arctic in any given region and season strongly depends on the regional jet stream position and speed southwest of this region. This suggests that future changes in dynamics may significantly amplify or dampen the regionally consistent moisture-induced increase in ARs in a warmer climate. Our results further support previous findings that positive ARPMT anomalies are profoundly linked to increased surface air temperature and precipitation, especially in the colder seasons, and have a predominantly negative effect on sea ice. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128 18 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate atmospheric rivers interannual variability poleward moisture transport precipitation sea ice |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate atmospheric rivers interannual variability poleward moisture transport precipitation sea ice Kolbe, M. Sonnemans, J.P.J. Bintanja, R. van der Linden, E.C. van der Wiel, K. Whan, K. Benedict, I. Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate atmospheric rivers interannual variability poleward moisture transport precipitation sea ice |
description |
Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase in the interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain to what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to the projected IAV increase of PMT. We analyzed large-ensemble climate simulations to (a) explore the link between PMT and ARs in the present-day (PD) and in two warmer climates (+2 and +3°C compared to pre-industrial global mean temperature), (b) assess the dynamic contribution to changes in future ARs, and (c) analyze the effect of ARs on Arctic climate on interannual timescales. We find that the share of AR-related PMT (ARPMT) to PMT increases from 42% in the PD to 53% in the +3°C climate. Our results show that the mean increases in AR-frequency and intensity are mainly caused by higher atmospheric moisture levels, while dynamic variability regulates regional ARs on an interannual basis. Notably, the amount of ARs reaching the Arctic in any given region and season strongly depends on the regional jet stream position and speed southwest of this region. This suggests that future changes in dynamics may significantly amplify or dampen the regionally consistent moisture-induced increase in ARs in a warmer climate. Our results further support previous findings that positive ARPMT anomalies are profoundly linked to increased surface air temperature and precipitation, especially in the colder seasons, and have a predominantly negative effect on sea ice. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kolbe, M. Sonnemans, J.P.J. Bintanja, R. van der Linden, E.C. van der Wiel, K. Whan, K. Benedict, I. |
author_facet |
Kolbe, M. Sonnemans, J.P.J. Bintanja, R. van der Linden, E.C. van der Wiel, K. Whan, K. Benedict, I. |
author_sort |
Kolbe, M. |
title |
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 |
title_short |
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 |
title_full |
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2 |
title_sort |
impact of atmospheric rivers on future poleward moisture transport and arctic climate in ec-earth2 |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-atmospheric-rivers-on-future-poleward-moisture-transpor https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038926 |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128 (2023) 18 ISSN: 2169-897X |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/639229 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-atmospheric-rivers-on-future-poleward-moisture-transpor doi:10.1029/2023JD038926 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038926 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
18 |
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1797576486002098176 |