Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics
Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/581251 2024-02-04T09:57:14+01:00 Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer 2012 text/html https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/future-climate-change-will-favour-non-specialist-mammals-in-the-s https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/545022 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/future-climate-change-will-favour-non-specialist-mammals-in-the-s doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research PLoS ONE 7 (2012) 12 ISSN: 1932-6203 Life Science info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2012 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 2024-01-10T23:21:21Z Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Arctic PLoS ONE 7 12 e52574 |
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Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
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ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Life Science |
spellingShingle |
Life Science Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
topic_facet |
Life Science |
description |
Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer |
author_facet |
Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer |
author_sort |
Hof, Anouschka R. |
title |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_short |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_full |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_fullStr |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_sort |
future climate change will favour non-specialist mammals in the (sub)arctics |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/future-climate-change-will-favour-non-specialist-mammals-in-the-s https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra |
op_source |
PLoS ONE 7 (2012) 12 ISSN: 1932-6203 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/545022 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/future-climate-change-will-favour-non-specialist-mammals-in-the-s doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
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7 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
e52574 |
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