Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality
This paper analyses tourism in Iceland using fractional integration and taking into account the seasonality and the degree of persistence in the data. Using annual data, the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected, implying permanency of shocks. However using, monthly data, a break is found at 2009m...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/564162 2024-01-21T10:07:12+01:00 Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality Huijbens, Edward H. 2018 text/html https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/tourism-in-iceland-persistence-and-seasonality https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.11.002 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/521608 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/tourism-in-iceland-persistence-and-seasonality doi:10.1016/j.annals.2017.11.002 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Wageningen University & Research Annals of Tourism Research 68 (2018) ISSN: 0160-7383 Iceland Long memory Persistence Policy Tourism time series info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2018 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.11.002 2023-12-27T23:14:11Z This paper analyses tourism in Iceland using fractional integration and taking into account the seasonality and the degree of persistence in the data. Using annual data, the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected, implying permanency of shocks. However using, monthly data, a break is found at 2009m7 and the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0,5) suggesting mean reversion. The conclusion is that exogenous shocks impacting inbound tourism do not persist and tend to disappear relatively fast. The key policy implications thereof are reported at the end of the paper, critiquing the classical response to perceived slumps in inbound tourism that include marketing and promotion instead of developing infrastructure in anticipation of resumed growth in inbound tourism. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Annals of Tourism Research 68 20 29 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Iceland Long memory Persistence Policy Tourism time series |
spellingShingle |
Iceland Long memory Persistence Policy Tourism time series Huijbens, Edward H. Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality |
topic_facet |
Iceland Long memory Persistence Policy Tourism time series |
description |
This paper analyses tourism in Iceland using fractional integration and taking into account the seasonality and the degree of persistence in the data. Using annual data, the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected, implying permanency of shocks. However using, monthly data, a break is found at 2009m7 and the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0,5) suggesting mean reversion. The conclusion is that exogenous shocks impacting inbound tourism do not persist and tend to disappear relatively fast. The key policy implications thereof are reported at the end of the paper, critiquing the classical response to perceived slumps in inbound tourism that include marketing and promotion instead of developing infrastructure in anticipation of resumed growth in inbound tourism. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huijbens, Edward H. |
author_facet |
Huijbens, Edward H. |
author_sort |
Huijbens, Edward H. |
title |
Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality |
title_short |
Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality |
title_full |
Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality |
title_fullStr |
Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tourism in Iceland : Persistence and seasonality |
title_sort |
tourism in iceland : persistence and seasonality |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/tourism-in-iceland-persistence-and-seasonality https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.11.002 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Annals of Tourism Research 68 (2018) ISSN: 0160-7383 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/521608 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/tourism-in-iceland-persistence-and-seasonality doi:10.1016/j.annals.2017.11.002 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.11.002 |
container_title |
Annals of Tourism Research |
container_volume |
68 |
container_start_page |
20 |
op_container_end_page |
29 |
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1788697732754440192 |