Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are u...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/562114 2024-02-11T09:59:15+01:00 Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E.C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F.M. 2020 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/strong-future-increases-in-arctic-precipitation-variability-linke https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/517341 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/strong-future-increases-in-arctic-precipitation-variability-linke doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research Science Advances 6 (2020) 7 ISSN: 2375-2548 Life Science Article/Letter to editor 2020 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 2024-01-24T23:15:18Z The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Arctic Science Advances 6 7 eaax6869 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Life Science |
spellingShingle |
Life Science Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E.C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F.M. Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
topic_facet |
Life Science |
description |
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E.C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F.M. |
author_facet |
Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E.C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F.M. |
author_sort |
Bintanja, R. |
title |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_short |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_full |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_fullStr |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_sort |
strong future increases in arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/strong-future-increases-in-arctic-precipitation-variability-linke https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_source |
Science Advances 6 (2020) 7 ISSN: 2375-2548 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/517341 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/strong-future-increases-in-arctic-precipitation-variability-linke doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
eaax6869 |
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1790595209823780864 |