Arctic decadal variability in a warming world
Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibri...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/523411 2024-02-04T09:56:21+01:00 Arctic decadal variability in a warming world van der Linden, Eveline C. Bintanja, Richard Hazeleger, Wilco 2017 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/arctic-decadal-variability-in-a-warming-world https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026058 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/417936 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/arctic-decadal-variability-in-a-warming-world doi:10.1002/2016JD026058 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Wageningen University & Research Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122 (2017) 11 ISSN: 2169-897X Air-sea interactions Arctic climate Atmospheric circulation Climate change Decadal variability info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2017 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026058 2024-01-10T23:18:10Z Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibrium climates with present-day, double, and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 forcing. The dominant region of variability, which is located over the Barents and Greenland Sea at present, shifts to the central Arctic and Siberian regions as the climate warms. The maximum variability in sea ice cover and surface air temperature occurs in the CO2 doubling climate when sea ice becomes more vulnerable to melt over vast stretches of the Arctic. Furthermore, the links between dominant atmospheric circulation modes and Arctic surface climate characteristics vary strongly with climate change. For instance, a positive Arctic Oscillation index is associated with a colder Arctic in warmer climates, instead of a warmer Arctic at present. Such changing relationships are partly related to the retreat of sea ice because altered wind patterns influence the sea ice distribution and hence the associated local surface fluxes. The atmospheric pressure distributions governing ADV and the associated large-scale dynamics also change with climate warming. The changing character of the ADV shows that it is vital to consider (changes in) ADV when addressing Arctic warming in climate model projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Arctic Greenland Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122 11 5677 5696 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Air-sea interactions Arctic climate Atmospheric circulation Climate change Decadal variability |
spellingShingle |
Air-sea interactions Arctic climate Atmospheric circulation Climate change Decadal variability van der Linden, Eveline C. Bintanja, Richard Hazeleger, Wilco Arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
topic_facet |
Air-sea interactions Arctic climate Atmospheric circulation Climate change Decadal variability |
description |
Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibrium climates with present-day, double, and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 forcing. The dominant region of variability, which is located over the Barents and Greenland Sea at present, shifts to the central Arctic and Siberian regions as the climate warms. The maximum variability in sea ice cover and surface air temperature occurs in the CO2 doubling climate when sea ice becomes more vulnerable to melt over vast stretches of the Arctic. Furthermore, the links between dominant atmospheric circulation modes and Arctic surface climate characteristics vary strongly with climate change. For instance, a positive Arctic Oscillation index is associated with a colder Arctic in warmer climates, instead of a warmer Arctic at present. Such changing relationships are partly related to the retreat of sea ice because altered wind patterns influence the sea ice distribution and hence the associated local surface fluxes. The atmospheric pressure distributions governing ADV and the associated large-scale dynamics also change with climate warming. The changing character of the ADV shows that it is vital to consider (changes in) ADV when addressing Arctic warming in climate model projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van der Linden, Eveline C. Bintanja, Richard Hazeleger, Wilco |
author_facet |
van der Linden, Eveline C. Bintanja, Richard Hazeleger, Wilco |
author_sort |
van der Linden, Eveline C. |
title |
Arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
title_short |
Arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
title_full |
Arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
title_fullStr |
Arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
title_sort |
arctic decadal variability in a warming world |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/arctic-decadal-variability-in-a-warming-world https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026058 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122 (2017) 11 ISSN: 2169-897X |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/417936 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/arctic-decadal-variability-in-a-warming-world doi:10.1002/2016JD026058 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026058 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
122 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
5677 |
op_container_end_page |
5696 |
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1789960894040506368 |