Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw
Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wet...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/510024 2024-04-28T08:04:01+00:00 Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw van der Kolk, Henk-Jan Heijmans, M.M.P.D. van Huissteden, J. Pullens, J.W.M. Berendse, F. 2016 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/potential-arctic-tundra-vegetation-shifts-in-response-to-changing https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/399758 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/potential-arctic-tundra-vegetation-shifts-in-response-to-changing doi:10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research Biogeosciences 13 (2016) 22 ISSN: 1726-4170 Life Science Article/Letter to editor 2016 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 2024-04-03T15:23:10Z Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Biogeosciences 13 22 6229 6245 |
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Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
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ftunivwagenin |
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English |
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Life Science |
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Life Science van der Kolk, Henk-Jan Heijmans, M.M.P.D. van Huissteden, J. Pullens, J.W.M. Berendse, F. Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
topic_facet |
Life Science |
description |
Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van der Kolk, Henk-Jan Heijmans, M.M.P.D. van Huissteden, J. Pullens, J.W.M. Berendse, F. |
author_facet |
van der Kolk, Henk-Jan Heijmans, M.M.P.D. van Huissteden, J. Pullens, J.W.M. Berendse, F. |
author_sort |
van der Kolk, Henk-Jan |
title |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_short |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_full |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_fullStr |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_sort |
potential arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/potential-arctic-tundra-vegetation-shifts-in-response-to-changing https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Biogeosciences 13 (2016) 22 ISSN: 1726-4170 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/399758 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/potential-arctic-tundra-vegetation-shifts-in-response-to-changing doi:10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
6229 |
op_container_end_page |
6245 |
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1797574947819749376 |