On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss
The authors examine the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic to an Arctic Ocean that is sea ice free all year round under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. It is shown that in comprehensive climate models, such loss of Arctic winter sea ice area is faster than the preceding loss of summe...
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Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/on-the-potential-for-abrupt-arctic-winter-sea-ice-loss https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 |
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/508961 2024-02-04T09:52:26+01:00 On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss Bathiany, S. Notz, Dirk Mauritsen, T. Raedel, G. Brovkin, V. 2016 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/on-the-potential-for-abrupt-arctic-winter-sea-ice-loss https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 en eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282672 https://edepot.wur.nl/393819 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/on-the-potential-for-abrupt-arctic-winter-sea-ice-loss doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Wageningen University & Research Journal of Climate 29 (2016) 22 ISSN: 0894-8755 Albedo Arctic Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena Climate change Clouds Geographic location/entity Ice loss/growth Physical Meteorology and Climatology Sea ice info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2016 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 2024-01-10T23:18:46Z The authors examine the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic to an Arctic Ocean that is sea ice free all year round under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. It is shown that in comprehensive climate models, such loss of Arctic winter sea ice area is faster than the preceding loss of summer sea ice area for the same rate of warming. In two of the models, several million square kilometers of winter sea ice are lost within only one decade. It is shown that neither surface albedo nor cloud feedbacks can explain the rapid winter ice loss in the climate model MPI-ESM by suppressing both feedbacks in the model. The authors argue that the large sensitivity of winter sea ice area in the models is caused by the asymmetry between melting and freezing: an ice-free summer requires the complete melt of even the thickest sea ice, which is why the perennial ice coverage decreases only gradually as more and more of the thinner ice melts away. In winter, however, sea ice areal coverage remains high as long as sea ice still forms, and then drops to zero wherever the ocean warms sufficiently to no longer form ice during winter. The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Arctic Arctic Ocean Journal of Climate 29 7 2703 2719 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
Albedo Arctic Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena Climate change Clouds Geographic location/entity Ice loss/growth Physical Meteorology and Climatology Sea ice |
spellingShingle |
Albedo Arctic Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena Climate change Clouds Geographic location/entity Ice loss/growth Physical Meteorology and Climatology Sea ice Bathiany, S. Notz, Dirk Mauritsen, T. Raedel, G. Brovkin, V. On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss |
topic_facet |
Albedo Arctic Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena Climate change Clouds Geographic location/entity Ice loss/growth Physical Meteorology and Climatology Sea ice |
description |
The authors examine the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic to an Arctic Ocean that is sea ice free all year round under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. It is shown that in comprehensive climate models, such loss of Arctic winter sea ice area is faster than the preceding loss of summer sea ice area for the same rate of warming. In two of the models, several million square kilometers of winter sea ice are lost within only one decade. It is shown that neither surface albedo nor cloud feedbacks can explain the rapid winter ice loss in the climate model MPI-ESM by suppressing both feedbacks in the model. The authors argue that the large sensitivity of winter sea ice area in the models is caused by the asymmetry between melting and freezing: an ice-free summer requires the complete melt of even the thickest sea ice, which is why the perennial ice coverage decreases only gradually as more and more of the thinner ice melts away. In winter, however, sea ice areal coverage remains high as long as sea ice still forms, and then drops to zero wherever the ocean warms sufficiently to no longer form ice during winter. The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bathiany, S. Notz, Dirk Mauritsen, T. Raedel, G. Brovkin, V. |
author_facet |
Bathiany, S. Notz, Dirk Mauritsen, T. Raedel, G. Brovkin, V. |
author_sort |
Bathiany, S. |
title |
On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss |
title_short |
On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss |
title_full |
On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss |
title_fullStr |
On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea-ice loss |
title_sort |
on the potential for abrupt arctic winter sea-ice loss |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/on-the-potential-for-abrupt-arctic-winter-sea-ice-loss https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Climate 29 (2016) 22 ISSN: 0894-8755 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282672 https://edepot.wur.nl/393819 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/on-the-potential-for-abrupt-arctic-winter-sea-ice-loss doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2703 |
op_container_end_page |
2719 |
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1789974510158479360 |