The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends
Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread: 1...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/490415 2024-02-04T09:52:27+01:00 The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends van der Linden, E.C. Bintanja, R. Hazeleger, W. Katsman, C.A. 2014 text/html https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/the-role-of-the-mean-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-on-near-surface-temp https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00617.1 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/353376 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/the-role-of-the-mean-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-on-near-surface-temp doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00617.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Wageningen University & Research Journal of Climate 27 (2014) 8 ISSN: 0894-8755 albedo feedback amplification climate model sensitivity extent future gcm inversion predictability thickness variability info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2014 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00617.1 2024-01-10T23:19:59Z Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread: 1) model formulation, 2) control climate state, and 3) internal climate variability. This study focuses on the influence of Arctic sea ice in the control climate on the intermodel spread in warming, using idealized 1% yr(-1) CO2 increase simulations of 33 state-of-the-art global climate models, and combining sea ice-temperature relations on local to large spatial scales. On the Arctic mean scale, the spread in temperature trends is only weakly related to ice volume or area in the control climate, and is probably not dominated by internal variability. This suggests that other processes, such as ocean heat transport and meteorological conditions, play a more important role in the spread of long-term Arctic warming than control sea ice conditions. However, on a local scale, sea ice-warming relations show that in regions with more sea ice, models generally simulate more warming in winter and less warming in summer. The local winter warming is clearly related to control sea ice and universal among models, whereas summer sea ice-warming relations are more diverse, and are probably dominated by differences in model formulation. To obtain a more realistic representation of Arctic warming, it is recommended to simulate control sea ice conditions in climate models so that the spatial pattern is correct. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Sea ice Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Arctic Journal of Climate 27 8 2819 2841 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
albedo feedback amplification climate model sensitivity extent future gcm inversion predictability thickness variability |
spellingShingle |
albedo feedback amplification climate model sensitivity extent future gcm inversion predictability thickness variability van der Linden, E.C. Bintanja, R. Hazeleger, W. Katsman, C.A. The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends |
topic_facet |
albedo feedback amplification climate model sensitivity extent future gcm inversion predictability thickness variability |
description |
Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread: 1) model formulation, 2) control climate state, and 3) internal climate variability. This study focuses on the influence of Arctic sea ice in the control climate on the intermodel spread in warming, using idealized 1% yr(-1) CO2 increase simulations of 33 state-of-the-art global climate models, and combining sea ice-temperature relations on local to large spatial scales. On the Arctic mean scale, the spread in temperature trends is only weakly related to ice volume or area in the control climate, and is probably not dominated by internal variability. This suggests that other processes, such as ocean heat transport and meteorological conditions, play a more important role in the spread of long-term Arctic warming than control sea ice conditions. However, on a local scale, sea ice-warming relations show that in regions with more sea ice, models generally simulate more warming in winter and less warming in summer. The local winter warming is clearly related to control sea ice and universal among models, whereas summer sea ice-warming relations are more diverse, and are probably dominated by differences in model formulation. To obtain a more realistic representation of Arctic warming, it is recommended to simulate control sea ice conditions in climate models so that the spatial pattern is correct. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van der Linden, E.C. Bintanja, R. Hazeleger, W. Katsman, C.A. |
author_facet |
van der Linden, E.C. Bintanja, R. Hazeleger, W. Katsman, C.A. |
author_sort |
van der Linden, E.C. |
title |
The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends |
title_short |
The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends |
title_full |
The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends |
title_fullStr |
The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends |
title_sort |
role of the mean state of arctic sea ice on near-surface temperature trends |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/the-role-of-the-mean-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-on-near-surface-temp https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00617.1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Climate 27 (2014) 8 ISSN: 0894-8755 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/353376 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/the-role-of-the-mean-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-on-near-surface-temp doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00617.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00617.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
2819 |
op_container_end_page |
2841 |
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