Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions
Although the boreal region is warming twice as fast as the global average, the way in which the vast boreal forests and tundras may respond is poorly understood. Using satellite data, we reveal marked alternative modes in the frequency distributions of boreal tree cover. At the northern end and at t...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/432406 2024-02-04T09:58:21+01:00 Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions Scheffer, M. Hirota, M. Holmgren, M. van Nes, E.H. Chapin, F.S. 2012 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/thresholds-for-boreal-biome-transitions https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219844110 en eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/268732 https://edepot.wur.nl/243037 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/thresholds-for-boreal-biome-transitions doi:10.1073/pnas.1219844110 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess (c) publisher Wageningen University & Research Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109 (2012) 52 ISSN: 0027-8424 arctic forest-tundra canada climate-change fire regime global resilience interior alaska savanna tree tropical forest white spruce info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2012 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219844110 2024-01-10T23:21:37Z Although the boreal region is warming twice as fast as the global average, the way in which the vast boreal forests and tundras may respond is poorly understood. Using satellite data, we reveal marked alternative modes in the frequency distributions of boreal tree cover. At the northern end and at the dry continental southern extremes, treeless tundra and steppe, respectively, are the only possible states. However, over a broad intermediate temperature range, these treeless states coexist with boreal forest (~75% tree cover) and with two more open woodland states (~20% and ~45% tree cover). Intermediate tree covers (e.g., ~10%, ~30%, and ~60% tree cover) between these distinct states are relatively rare, suggesting that they may represent unstable states where the system dwells only transiently. Mechanisms for such instabilities remain to be unraveled, but our results have important implications for the anticipated response of these ecosystems to climatic change. The data reveal that boreal forest shows no gradual decline in tree cover toward its limits. Instead, our analysis suggests that it becomes less resilient in the sense that it may more easily shift into a sparse woodland or treeless state. Similarly, the relative scarcity of the intermediate ~10% tree cover suggests that tundra may shift relatively abruptly to a more abundant tree cover. If our inferences are correct, climate change may invoke massive nonlinear shifts in boreal biomes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Tundra Alaska Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Arctic Canada Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 52 21384 21389 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic forest-tundra canada climate-change fire regime global resilience interior alaska savanna tree tropical forest white spruce |
spellingShingle |
arctic forest-tundra canada climate-change fire regime global resilience interior alaska savanna tree tropical forest white spruce Scheffer, M. Hirota, M. Holmgren, M. van Nes, E.H. Chapin, F.S. Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions |
topic_facet |
arctic forest-tundra canada climate-change fire regime global resilience interior alaska savanna tree tropical forest white spruce |
description |
Although the boreal region is warming twice as fast as the global average, the way in which the vast boreal forests and tundras may respond is poorly understood. Using satellite data, we reveal marked alternative modes in the frequency distributions of boreal tree cover. At the northern end and at the dry continental southern extremes, treeless tundra and steppe, respectively, are the only possible states. However, over a broad intermediate temperature range, these treeless states coexist with boreal forest (~75% tree cover) and with two more open woodland states (~20% and ~45% tree cover). Intermediate tree covers (e.g., ~10%, ~30%, and ~60% tree cover) between these distinct states are relatively rare, suggesting that they may represent unstable states where the system dwells only transiently. Mechanisms for such instabilities remain to be unraveled, but our results have important implications for the anticipated response of these ecosystems to climatic change. The data reveal that boreal forest shows no gradual decline in tree cover toward its limits. Instead, our analysis suggests that it becomes less resilient in the sense that it may more easily shift into a sparse woodland or treeless state. Similarly, the relative scarcity of the intermediate ~10% tree cover suggests that tundra may shift relatively abruptly to a more abundant tree cover. If our inferences are correct, climate change may invoke massive nonlinear shifts in boreal biomes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Scheffer, M. Hirota, M. Holmgren, M. van Nes, E.H. Chapin, F.S. |
author_facet |
Scheffer, M. Hirota, M. Holmgren, M. van Nes, E.H. Chapin, F.S. |
author_sort |
Scheffer, M. |
title |
Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions |
title_short |
Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions |
title_full |
Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions |
title_fullStr |
Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Thresholds for Boreal Biome Transitions |
title_sort |
thresholds for boreal biome transitions |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/thresholds-for-boreal-biome-transitions https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219844110 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Tundra Alaska |
op_source |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109 (2012) 52 ISSN: 0027-8424 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/268732 https://edepot.wur.nl/243037 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/thresholds-for-boreal-biome-transitions doi:10.1073/pnas.1219844110 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess (c) publisher Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219844110 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
109 |
container_issue |
52 |
container_start_page |
21384 |
op_container_end_page |
21389 |
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1789962796455165952 |