Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions
This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduce...
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ftunivwagenin:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/400421 2024-02-04T10:03:34+01:00 Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions Rogelj, J. Chen, C. Nabel, J. Macey, K. Hare, W. Schaeffer, M. Markmann, K. Höhne, N. Krogh Anderson, K. Meinshausen, M. 2010 application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/analysis-of-the-copenhagen-accord-pledges-and-its-global-climatic https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013 en eng https://edepot.wur.nl/159817 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/analysis-of-the-copenhagen-accord-pledges-and-its-global-climatic doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Wageningen University & Research Environmental Research Letters 5 (2010) 3 ISSN: 1748-9326 gas emissions ocean acidification stabilization targets info:eu-repo/semantics/article Article/Letter to editor info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2010 ftunivwagenin https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013 2024-01-10T23:23:02Z This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 and CO2-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 °C, and even more so for 1.5 °C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 °C goal is likely to become less feasible Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library Environmental Research Letters 5 3 034013 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wageningen UR (University & Research Centre): Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivwagenin |
language |
English |
topic |
gas emissions ocean acidification stabilization targets |
spellingShingle |
gas emissions ocean acidification stabilization targets Rogelj, J. Chen, C. Nabel, J. Macey, K. Hare, W. Schaeffer, M. Markmann, K. Höhne, N. Krogh Anderson, K. Meinshausen, M. Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
topic_facet |
gas emissions ocean acidification stabilization targets |
description |
This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 and CO2-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 °C, and even more so for 1.5 °C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 °C goal is likely to become less feasible |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rogelj, J. Chen, C. Nabel, J. Macey, K. Hare, W. Schaeffer, M. Markmann, K. Höhne, N. Krogh Anderson, K. Meinshausen, M. |
author_facet |
Rogelj, J. Chen, C. Nabel, J. Macey, K. Hare, W. Schaeffer, M. Markmann, K. Höhne, N. Krogh Anderson, K. Meinshausen, M. |
author_sort |
Rogelj, J. |
title |
Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
title_short |
Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
title_full |
Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
title_sort |
analysis of the copenhagen accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/analysis-of-the-copenhagen-accord-pledges-and-its-global-climatic https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters 5 (2010) 3 ISSN: 1748-9326 |
op_relation |
https://edepot.wur.nl/159817 https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/analysis-of-the-copenhagen-accord-pledges-and-its-global-climatic doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Wageningen University & Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034013 |
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1789971035248918528 |