Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

• Main Authors: van Westen, René, Dijkstra, Henk, Bloemendaal, Nadia
• Other Authors: Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Physical Oceanography
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: AMOC weakening; Climate change; High-resolution modelling; Tropical cyclones; Atmospheric Science; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/430072

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.