Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios
Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/426394 2023-07-23T04:19:29+02:00 Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios Noël, Brice Lenaerts, Jan T. M. Lipscomb, William H. Thayer-Calder, Katherine Broeke, Michiel R. van den Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2022-11-11 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/426394 en eng 2041-1723 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/426394 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Article 2022 ftunivutrecht 2023-07-02T03:52:35Z Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850–2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22nd century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Utrecht University Repository Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
description |
Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850–2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22nd century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades. |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Noël, Brice Lenaerts, Jan T. M. Lipscomb, William H. Thayer-Calder, Katherine Broeke, Michiel R. van den |
spellingShingle |
Noël, Brice Lenaerts, Jan T. M. Lipscomb, William H. Thayer-Calder, Katherine Broeke, Michiel R. van den Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
author_facet |
Noël, Brice Lenaerts, Jan T. M. Lipscomb, William H. Thayer-Calder, Katherine Broeke, Michiel R. van den |
author_sort |
Noël, Brice |
title |
Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
title_short |
Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
title_full |
Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
title_sort |
peak refreezing in the greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/426394 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
2041-1723 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/426394 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1772182615261970432 |