Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios

Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Noël, Brice, Lenaerts, Jan T. M., Lipscomb, William H., Thayer-Calder, Katherine, Broeke, Michiel R. van den
Other Authors: Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/426394
Description
Summary:Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850–2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22nd century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades.