Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate
Paleo-proxy records suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits a threshold for an abrupt change, a so-called tipping point. A classical bifurcation theory, a basis of the tipping dynamics of AMOC implicitly assumes that the tipping point is fixed. However, when a sy...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/423921 2023-07-23T04:18:59+02:00 Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate Kim, Soong-Ki Kim, Hyo-Jeong Dijkstra, Henk A. An, Soon-Il Sub Physical Oceanography Marine and Atmospheric Research 2022-12 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/423921 en eng 2397-3722 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/423921 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Sea-level record North-atlantic Thermohaline circulation Ocean circulation Meltwater Bifurcation Instability Greenland Collapse Isotope Global and Planetary Change Environmental Chemistry Atmospheric Science Article 2022 ftunivutrecht 2023-07-02T03:47:40Z Paleo-proxy records suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits a threshold for an abrupt change, a so-called tipping point. A classical bifurcation theory, a basis of the tipping dynamics of AMOC implicitly assumes that the tipping point is fixed. However, when a system is subjected to time-varying forcing (e.g., AMOC exposed to ice meltwater) an actual tipping point can be overshot due to delayed tipping, referred to as the slow passage effect. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity and a low-order model with freshwater forcing, we show that the tipping point of AMOC is largely delayed by the slow passage effect. It causes a large tipping lag of up to 1300 years, and strongly relaxes the abruptness of tipping as well. We further demonstrate that the tipping modulation can actively occur in past, present, and future climates by quantifying the effect during Dansgaard-Oeschger events, meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A), and current Greenland ice sheet melting. The suggested slow passage effect may explain the observed lagged AMOC collapse to MWP-1A of about 1000 years and provides implications tipping risk in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation Utrecht University Repository Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea-level record North-atlantic Thermohaline circulation Ocean circulation Meltwater Bifurcation Instability Greenland Collapse Isotope Global and Planetary Change Environmental Chemistry Atmospheric Science |
spellingShingle |
Sea-level record North-atlantic Thermohaline circulation Ocean circulation Meltwater Bifurcation Instability Greenland Collapse Isotope Global and Planetary Change Environmental Chemistry Atmospheric Science Kim, Soong-Ki Kim, Hyo-Jeong Dijkstra, Henk A. An, Soon-Il Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate |
topic_facet |
Sea-level record North-atlantic Thermohaline circulation Ocean circulation Meltwater Bifurcation Instability Greenland Collapse Isotope Global and Planetary Change Environmental Chemistry Atmospheric Science |
description |
Paleo-proxy records suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits a threshold for an abrupt change, a so-called tipping point. A classical bifurcation theory, a basis of the tipping dynamics of AMOC implicitly assumes that the tipping point is fixed. However, when a system is subjected to time-varying forcing (e.g., AMOC exposed to ice meltwater) an actual tipping point can be overshot due to delayed tipping, referred to as the slow passage effect. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity and a low-order model with freshwater forcing, we show that the tipping point of AMOC is largely delayed by the slow passage effect. It causes a large tipping lag of up to 1300 years, and strongly relaxes the abruptness of tipping as well. We further demonstrate that the tipping modulation can actively occur in past, present, and future climates by quantifying the effect during Dansgaard-Oeschger events, meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A), and current Greenland ice sheet melting. The suggested slow passage effect may explain the observed lagged AMOC collapse to MWP-1A of about 1000 years and provides implications tipping risk in the future. |
author2 |
Sub Physical Oceanography Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kim, Soong-Ki Kim, Hyo-Jeong Dijkstra, Henk A. An, Soon-Il |
author_facet |
Kim, Soong-Ki Kim, Hyo-Jeong Dijkstra, Henk A. An, Soon-Il |
author_sort |
Kim, Soong-Ki |
title |
Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate |
title_short |
Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate |
title_full |
Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate |
title_fullStr |
Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate |
title_sort |
slow and soft passage through tipping point of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a changing climate |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/423921 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation |
genre_facet |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation |
op_relation |
2397-3722 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/423921 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1772181713472978944 |