Bayesian calibration of firn densification models
Firn densification modelling is key to understanding ice sheet mass balance, ice sheet surface elevation change, and the age difference between ice and the air in enclosed air bubbles. This has resulted in the development of many firn models, all relying to a certain degree on parameter calibration...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/409867 2023-12-03T10:13:08+01:00 Bayesian calibration of firn densification models Verjans, Vincent Leeson, Amber nemeth, christopher Stevens, C. Max Kuipers Munneke, P. Noël, B.P.Y. van Wessem, J.M. Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2020 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/409867 en eng 1994-0416 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/409867 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Article 2020 ftunivutrecht 2023-11-08T23:20:02Z Firn densification modelling is key to understanding ice sheet mass balance, ice sheet surface elevation change, and the age difference between ice and the air in enclosed air bubbles. This has resulted in the development of many firn models, all relying to a certain degree on parameter calibration against observed data. We present a novel Bayesian calibration method for these parameters and apply it to three existing firn models. Using an extensive dataset of firn cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reach optimal parameter estimates applicable to both ice sheets. We then use these to simulate firn density and evaluate against independent observations. Our simulations show a significant decrease (24 % and 56 %) in observation–model discrepancy for two models and a smaller increase (15 %) for the third. As opposed to current methods, the Bayesian framework allows for robust uncertainty analysis related to parameter values. Based on our results, we review some inherent model assumptions and demonstrate how firn model choice and uncertainties in parameter values cause spread in key model outputs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Utrecht University Repository Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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Utrecht University Repository |
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ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
description |
Firn densification modelling is key to understanding ice sheet mass balance, ice sheet surface elevation change, and the age difference between ice and the air in enclosed air bubbles. This has resulted in the development of many firn models, all relying to a certain degree on parameter calibration against observed data. We present a novel Bayesian calibration method for these parameters and apply it to three existing firn models. Using an extensive dataset of firn cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reach optimal parameter estimates applicable to both ice sheets. We then use these to simulate firn density and evaluate against independent observations. Our simulations show a significant decrease (24 % and 56 %) in observation–model discrepancy for two models and a smaller increase (15 %) for the third. As opposed to current methods, the Bayesian framework allows for robust uncertainty analysis related to parameter values. Based on our results, we review some inherent model assumptions and demonstrate how firn model choice and uncertainties in parameter values cause spread in key model outputs. |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verjans, Vincent Leeson, Amber nemeth, christopher Stevens, C. Max Kuipers Munneke, P. Noël, B.P.Y. van Wessem, J.M. |
spellingShingle |
Verjans, Vincent Leeson, Amber nemeth, christopher Stevens, C. Max Kuipers Munneke, P. Noël, B.P.Y. van Wessem, J.M. Bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
author_facet |
Verjans, Vincent Leeson, Amber nemeth, christopher Stevens, C. Max Kuipers Munneke, P. Noël, B.P.Y. van Wessem, J.M. |
author_sort |
Verjans, Vincent |
title |
Bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
title_short |
Bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
title_full |
Bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
title_sort |
bayesian calibration of firn densification models |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/409867 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
1994-0416 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/409867 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1784259831039787008 |