Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/408888 2023-11-12T04:10:42+01:00 Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations de Nooijer, Wesley Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Zhang, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim Haywood, Alan Tindall, Julia Hunter, Stephen Dowsett, Harry Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Otto-Bliesner, Bette Feng, Ran Sohl, Linda Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Baatsen, Michiel von der Heydt, Anna Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing-Le Kamae, Youichi Brierley, Chris Sub Dynamics Meteorology Sub Physical Oceanography Marine and Atmospheric Research 2020-11-23 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/408888 en eng 1814-9324 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/408888 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Article 2020 ftunivutrecht 2023-11-01T23:24:15Z Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Utrecht University Repository Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
description |
Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning ... |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Sub Physical Oceanography Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
de Nooijer, Wesley Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Zhang, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim Haywood, Alan Tindall, Julia Hunter, Stephen Dowsett, Harry Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Otto-Bliesner, Bette Feng, Ran Sohl, Linda Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Baatsen, Michiel von der Heydt, Anna Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing-Le Kamae, Youichi Brierley, Chris |
spellingShingle |
de Nooijer, Wesley Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Zhang, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim Haywood, Alan Tindall, Julia Hunter, Stephen Dowsett, Harry Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Otto-Bliesner, Bette Feng, Ran Sohl, Linda Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Baatsen, Michiel von der Heydt, Anna Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing-Le Kamae, Youichi Brierley, Chris Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations |
author_facet |
de Nooijer, Wesley Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Zhang, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim Haywood, Alan Tindall, Julia Hunter, Stephen Dowsett, Harry Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Otto-Bliesner, Bette Feng, Ran Sohl, Linda Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Baatsen, Michiel von der Heydt, Anna Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing-Le Kamae, Youichi Brierley, Chris |
author_sort |
de Nooijer, Wesley |
title |
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations |
title_short |
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations |
title_full |
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations |
title_sort |
evaluation of arctic warming in mid-pliocene climate simulations |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/408888 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
1814-9324 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/408888 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782330050103738368 |