Cascading transitions in the climate system

We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Dekker, Mark M., Von Der Heydt, Anna S., Dijkstra, Henk A.
Other Authors: Sub Simulation of Complex Systems, Sub Physical Oceanography, Dep Natuurkunde, Marine and Atmospheric Research
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/386052
Description
Summary:We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold-Hopf, Hopf-fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean-El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system.