Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf
Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘fo...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/370810 2023-07-23T04:13:14+02:00 Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf Chester, M. L. Kulessa, Bernd Luckman, A. Bassis, J. N. Kuipers Munneke, P. Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2017 image/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/370810 en eng 0260-3055 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/370810 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Antarctic glaciology calving Glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves Article 2017 ftunivutrecht 2023-07-02T02:32:28Z Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘force–response’ relationships. Here we apply Systems Analysis to the Amery rift system, East Antarctica. We develop a scalable ‘System Model’ driven by a coarsely-sampled dataset characteristic of glaciological observations in remote locations, and validate it using rift lengths observed in 2000–06 and 2012. In this initial demonstration, we forecast a detachment date of ∼2019 ± 5 years for the large tabular iceberg colloquially known as the ‘Loose Tooth’, for which relative humidity surprisingly emerges as the best statistical predictor. RACMO2 climate modelling reveals that relative humidity correlates best with surface albedo and snowmelt, both of which are intimately linked to firn compaction and ice shelf temperature and flow. We postulate that relative humidity can therefore serve as a proxy for internal stress, a known key control of ‘Loose Tooth’ calving. Although no physical causality is implied in Systems Analysis, postulates such as this can aid in setting priorities in studies of complex glaciological processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amery Ice Shelf Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* Utrecht University Repository Amery ENVELOPE(-94.063,-94.063,56.565,56.565) Amery Ice Shelf ENVELOPE(71.000,71.000,-69.750,-69.750) Antarctic East Antarctica |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic glaciology calving Glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic glaciology calving Glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves Chester, M. L. Kulessa, Bernd Luckman, A. Bassis, J. N. Kuipers Munneke, P. Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf |
topic_facet |
Antarctic glaciology calving Glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves |
description |
Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘force–response’ relationships. Here we apply Systems Analysis to the Amery rift system, East Antarctica. We develop a scalable ‘System Model’ driven by a coarsely-sampled dataset characteristic of glaciological observations in remote locations, and validate it using rift lengths observed in 2000–06 and 2012. In this initial demonstration, we forecast a detachment date of ∼2019 ± 5 years for the large tabular iceberg colloquially known as the ‘Loose Tooth’, for which relative humidity surprisingly emerges as the best statistical predictor. RACMO2 climate modelling reveals that relative humidity correlates best with surface albedo and snowmelt, both of which are intimately linked to firn compaction and ice shelf temperature and flow. We postulate that relative humidity can therefore serve as a proxy for internal stress, a known key control of ‘Loose Tooth’ calving. Although no physical causality is implied in Systems Analysis, postulates such as this can aid in setting priorities in studies of complex glaciological processes. |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chester, M. L. Kulessa, Bernd Luckman, A. Bassis, J. N. Kuipers Munneke, P. |
author_facet |
Chester, M. L. Kulessa, Bernd Luckman, A. Bassis, J. N. Kuipers Munneke, P. |
author_sort |
Chester, M. L. |
title |
Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf |
title_short |
Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf |
title_full |
Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf |
title_fullStr |
Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf |
title_sort |
systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of amery ice shelf |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/370810 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-94.063,-94.063,56.565,56.565) ENVELOPE(71.000,71.000,-69.750,-69.750) |
geographic |
Amery Amery Ice Shelf Antarctic East Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amery Amery Ice Shelf Antarctic East Antarctica |
genre |
Amery Ice Shelf Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
genre_facet |
Amery Ice Shelf Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
op_relation |
0260-3055 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/370810 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1772177731385032704 |