Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections
Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of d...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/358587 2024-04-28T08:24:35+00:00 Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections De Winter, Renske C. Reerink, Thomas J. Slangen, Aimée B.A. De Vries, Hylke Edwards, Tamsin L. Van De Wal, Roderik S.W. Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change 2017-12-04 image/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/358587 en eng 1561-8633 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/358587 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess General Earth and Planetary Sciences Article 2017 ftunivutrecht 2024-04-09T23:38:33Z Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18gm higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32gm. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8gm. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Utrecht University Repository |
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Open Polar |
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Utrecht University Repository |
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ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
spellingShingle |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences De Winter, Renske C. Reerink, Thomas J. Slangen, Aimée B.A. De Vries, Hylke Edwards, Tamsin L. Van De Wal, Roderik S.W. Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
topic_facet |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
description |
Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18gm higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32gm. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8gm. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections. |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
De Winter, Renske C. Reerink, Thomas J. Slangen, Aimée B.A. De Vries, Hylke Edwards, Tamsin L. Van De Wal, Roderik S.W. |
author_facet |
De Winter, Renske C. Reerink, Thomas J. Slangen, Aimée B.A. De Vries, Hylke Edwards, Tamsin L. Van De Wal, Roderik S.W. |
author_sort |
De Winter, Renske C. |
title |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_short |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_full |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_fullStr |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_sort |
impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/358587 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
1561-8633 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/358587 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1797584766394957824 |