Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/350983 2023-11-12T04:17:51+01:00 Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting Bakker, P. Schmittner, A. Lenaerts, J. T.M. Abe-Ouchi, A. Bi, D. van den Broeke, M. R. Chan, W. L. Hu, A. Beadling, R. L. Marsland, S. J. Mernild, S. H. Saenko, O. A. Swingedouw, D. Sullivan, A. Yin, J. Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2016-12-16 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/350983 en eng 0094-8276 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/350983 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation climate change general circulation model Taverne Geophysics Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Article 2016 ftunivutrecht 2023-11-01T23:14:05Z The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Utrecht University Repository Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation climate change general circulation model Taverne Geophysics Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) |
spellingShingle |
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation climate change general circulation model Taverne Geophysics Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Bakker, P. Schmittner, A. Lenaerts, J. T.M. Abe-Ouchi, A. Bi, D. van den Broeke, M. R. Chan, W. L. Hu, A. Beadling, R. L. Marsland, S. J. Mernild, S. H. Saenko, O. A. Swingedouw, D. Sullivan, A. Yin, J. Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting |
topic_facet |
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation climate change general circulation model Taverne Geophysics Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) |
description |
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation. |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bakker, P. Schmittner, A. Lenaerts, J. T.M. Abe-Ouchi, A. Bi, D. van den Broeke, M. R. Chan, W. L. Hu, A. Beadling, R. L. Marsland, S. J. Mernild, S. H. Saenko, O. A. Swingedouw, D. Sullivan, A. Yin, J. |
author_facet |
Bakker, P. Schmittner, A. Lenaerts, J. T.M. Abe-Ouchi, A. Bi, D. van den Broeke, M. R. Chan, W. L. Hu, A. Beadling, R. L. Marsland, S. J. Mernild, S. H. Saenko, O. A. Swingedouw, D. Sullivan, A. Yin, J. |
author_sort |
Bakker, P. |
title |
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting |
title_short |
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting |
title_full |
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting |
title_fullStr |
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting |
title_sort |
fate of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation: strong decline under continued warming and greenland melting |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/350983 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
0094-8276 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/350983 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782334615257612288 |