Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment*
The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two in...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/341102 |
id |
ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/341102 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/341102 2023-11-12T04:22:28+01:00 Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* Corti, S. Palmer, T. Balmaseda, M. Weisheimer, A. Drijfhout, S. Dunstone, N. Hazeleger, W. Kröger, J. Pohlmann, H. Smith, D. Von Storch, J.-S. Wouters, B. Sub Physical Oceanography Sub Practicum Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2015-06 image/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/341102 en eng 0894-8755 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/341102 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Climate prediction Climate models Model comparison Decadal variability Interdecadal variability Oceanic variability Article 2015 ftunivutrecht 2023-11-01T23:13:30Z The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the “correct” decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean Utrecht University Repository Pacific Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate prediction Climate models Model comparison Decadal variability Interdecadal variability Oceanic variability |
spellingShingle |
Climate prediction Climate models Model comparison Decadal variability Interdecadal variability Oceanic variability Corti, S. Palmer, T. Balmaseda, M. Weisheimer, A. Drijfhout, S. Dunstone, N. Hazeleger, W. Kröger, J. Pohlmann, H. Smith, D. Von Storch, J.-S. Wouters, B. Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* |
topic_facet |
Climate prediction Climate models Model comparison Decadal variability Interdecadal variability Oceanic variability |
description |
The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the “correct” decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years. |
author2 |
Sub Physical Oceanography Sub Practicum Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Corti, S. Palmer, T. Balmaseda, M. Weisheimer, A. Drijfhout, S. Dunstone, N. Hazeleger, W. Kröger, J. Pohlmann, H. Smith, D. Von Storch, J.-S. Wouters, B. |
author_facet |
Corti, S. Palmer, T. Balmaseda, M. Weisheimer, A. Drijfhout, S. Dunstone, N. Hazeleger, W. Kröger, J. Pohlmann, H. Smith, D. Von Storch, J.-S. Wouters, B. |
author_sort |
Corti, S. |
title |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* |
title_short |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* |
title_full |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment* |
title_sort |
impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: a sensitivity experiment* |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/341102 |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
0894-8755 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/341102 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782337506962833408 |