Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century
Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/327832 2023-07-23T04:14:21+02:00 Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century Wanders, Niko Wada, Yoshi Landdegradatie en aardobservatie Hydrologie Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology 2015-12-28 image/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/327832 en eng 0094-8276 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/327832 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess AAO climate oscillations discharge ENSO NAO PDO Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Geophysics Article 2015 ftunivutrecht 2023-07-02T01:37:29Z Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Utrecht University Repository Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
AAO climate oscillations discharge ENSO NAO PDO Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Geophysics |
spellingShingle |
AAO climate oscillations discharge ENSO NAO PDO Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Geophysics Wanders, Niko Wada, Yoshi Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
topic_facet |
AAO climate oscillations discharge ENSO NAO PDO Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Geophysics |
description |
Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future. |
author2 |
Landdegradatie en aardobservatie Hydrologie Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wanders, Niko Wada, Yoshi |
author_facet |
Wanders, Niko Wada, Yoshi |
author_sort |
Wanders, Niko |
title |
Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
title_short |
Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
title_full |
Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
title_sort |
decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/327832 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
0094-8276 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/327832 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1772184216130289664 |