A stochastic dynamical systems view of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

• Main Authors: Dijkstra, H.A., Frankcombe, L.M., von der Heydt, A.S.
• Other Authors: Marine and Atmospheric Research, Dep Natuurkunde
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2008
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/32411

We provide a dynamical systems framework to understand the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and show that this framework is in many ways similar to that of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A so-called minimal primitive equation model is used to represent the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Within this minimal model, we identify a normal mode of multidecadal variability that can destabilize the background climate state through a Hopf bifurcation. Next, we argue that noise is setting the amplitude of the sea surface temperature variability associated with this normal mode. The results provide support that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation is involved in the multidecadal variability as observed in the North Atlantic.