Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/321807 2023-11-12T04:00:50+01:00 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate Cornford, S. L. Martin, D. F. Payne, A. J. Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, A. M. Gladstone, R. M. Edwards, T. L. Shannon, S. R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. R. Hellmer, H. H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. G. Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2015 image/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321807 en eng 1994-0416 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321807 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess PINE ISLAND GLACIER GROUNDING-LINE MIGRATION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE WEDDELL SEA SECTOR SHELF FLOW SENSITIVITY MODELS RETREAT BED Article 2015 ftunivutrecht 2023-11-01T23:13:10Z We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the El and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Pine Island Glacier Thwaites Glacier Weddell Sea Utrecht University Repository Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) Thwaites Glacier ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) Weddell Weddell Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
PINE ISLAND GLACIER GROUNDING-LINE MIGRATION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE WEDDELL SEA SECTOR SHELF FLOW SENSITIVITY MODELS RETREAT BED |
spellingShingle |
PINE ISLAND GLACIER GROUNDING-LINE MIGRATION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE WEDDELL SEA SECTOR SHELF FLOW SENSITIVITY MODELS RETREAT BED Cornford, S. L. Martin, D. F. Payne, A. J. Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, A. M. Gladstone, R. M. Edwards, T. L. Shannon, S. R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. R. Hellmer, H. H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. G. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
topic_facet |
PINE ISLAND GLACIER GROUNDING-LINE MIGRATION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE WEDDELL SEA SECTOR SHELF FLOW SENSITIVITY MODELS RETREAT BED |
description |
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the El and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cornford, S. L. Martin, D. F. Payne, A. J. Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, A. M. Gladstone, R. M. Edwards, T. L. Shannon, S. R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. R. Hellmer, H. H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. G. |
author_facet |
Cornford, S. L. Martin, D. F. Payne, A. J. Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, A. M. Gladstone, R. M. Edwards, T. L. Shannon, S. R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. R. Hellmer, H. H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. G. |
author_sort |
Cornford, S. L. |
title |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_short |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_sort |
century-scale simulations of the response of the west antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321807 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier Thwaites Glacier Weddell Weddell Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier Thwaites Glacier Weddell Weddell Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Pine Island Glacier Thwaites Glacier Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Pine Island Glacier Thwaites Glacier Weddell Sea |
op_relation |
1994-0416 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321807 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782328881925062656 |