Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming
Projections of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the expected increase in precipitation due to the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air(1). Observations over the past decades, however, are unable to constrain...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/321805 2023-11-12T04:03:51+01:00 Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming Frieler, Katja Clark, Peter U. He, Feng Buizert, Christo Reese, Ronja Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Winkelmann, Ricarda Levermann, Anders Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research 2015-04 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321805 en eng 1758-678X https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321805 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE MODEL ICE-SHEET LAST DEGLACIATION WEST ANTARCTICA PRECIPITATION GREENLAND SNOWFALL Taverne Article 2015 ftunivutrecht 2023-11-01T23:13:10Z Projections of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the expected increase in precipitation due to the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air(1). Observations over the past decades, however, are unable to constrain the relation between temperature and accumulation changes because both are dominated by strong natural variability(2-5). Here we derive a consistent continental-scale increase in accumulation of approximately 5 +/- 1% K-1, through the assessment of ice-core data (spanning the large temperature change during the last deglaciation, 21,000 to 10,000 years ago), in combination with palaeo-simulations, future projections by 35 general circulation models (GCMs), and one high-resolution future simulation. The ice-core data and modelling results for the last deglaciation agree, showing uniform local sensitivities of similar to 6% K-1. The palaeo-simulation allows for a continental-scale aggregation of accumulation changes reaching 4.3% K-1. Despite the different timescales, these sensitivities agree with the multi-model mean of 6.1 +/- 2.6% K-1 (GCMprojections) and the continental-scale sensitivity of 4.9% K-1 (high-resolution future simulation). Because some of the mass gain of the AIS is offset by dynamical losses induced by accumulation(6,7), we provide a response function allowing projections of sea-level fall in terms of continental-scale accumulation changes that compete with surface melting and dynamical losses induced by other mechanisms(6,8,9). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland ice core Ice Sheet West Antarctica Utrecht University Repository Antarctic Greenland West Antarctica |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE MODEL ICE-SHEET LAST DEGLACIATION WEST ANTARCTICA PRECIPITATION GREENLAND SNOWFALL Taverne |
spellingShingle |
SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE MODEL ICE-SHEET LAST DEGLACIATION WEST ANTARCTICA PRECIPITATION GREENLAND SNOWFALL Taverne Frieler, Katja Clark, Peter U. He, Feng Buizert, Christo Reese, Ronja Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Winkelmann, Ricarda Levermann, Anders Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming |
topic_facet |
SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE MODEL ICE-SHEET LAST DEGLACIATION WEST ANTARCTICA PRECIPITATION GREENLAND SNOWFALL Taverne |
description |
Projections of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the expected increase in precipitation due to the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air(1). Observations over the past decades, however, are unable to constrain the relation between temperature and accumulation changes because both are dominated by strong natural variability(2-5). Here we derive a consistent continental-scale increase in accumulation of approximately 5 +/- 1% K-1, through the assessment of ice-core data (spanning the large temperature change during the last deglaciation, 21,000 to 10,000 years ago), in combination with palaeo-simulations, future projections by 35 general circulation models (GCMs), and one high-resolution future simulation. The ice-core data and modelling results for the last deglaciation agree, showing uniform local sensitivities of similar to 6% K-1. The palaeo-simulation allows for a continental-scale aggregation of accumulation changes reaching 4.3% K-1. Despite the different timescales, these sensitivities agree with the multi-model mean of 6.1 +/- 2.6% K-1 (GCMprojections) and the continental-scale sensitivity of 4.9% K-1 (high-resolution future simulation). Because some of the mass gain of the AIS is offset by dynamical losses induced by accumulation(6,7), we provide a response function allowing projections of sea-level fall in terms of continental-scale accumulation changes that compete with surface melting and dynamical losses induced by other mechanisms(6,8,9). |
author2 |
Sub Dynamics Meteorology Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frieler, Katja Clark, Peter U. He, Feng Buizert, Christo Reese, Ronja Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Winkelmann, Ricarda Levermann, Anders |
author_facet |
Frieler, Katja Clark, Peter U. He, Feng Buizert, Christo Reese, Ronja Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Winkelmann, Ricarda Levermann, Anders |
author_sort |
Frieler, Katja |
title |
Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming |
title_short |
Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming |
title_full |
Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming |
title_fullStr |
Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming |
title_sort |
consistent evidence of increasing antarctic accumulation with warming |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321805 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland ice core Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland ice core Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
op_relation |
1758-678X https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/321805 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782339299619897344 |