Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200)...
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/275780 2023-07-23T04:15:50+02:00 Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model Ligtenberg, S.R.M. van de Berg, W.J. van den Broeke, M.R. Rae, J.G.L. van Meijgaard, E. Marine and Atmospheric Research Sub Dynamics Meteorology 2013 application/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/275780 en eng 0930-7575 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/275780 info:eu-repo/semantics/EmbargoedAccess Article 2013 ftunivutrecht 2023-07-02T00:41:24Z A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60– 200 Gt year-1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year-1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between DSMB and DT2m of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year-1 K-1 is found. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Utrecht University Repository Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
description |
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60– 200 Gt year-1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year-1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between DSMB and DT2m of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year-1 K-1 is found. |
author2 |
Marine and Atmospheric Research Sub Dynamics Meteorology |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ligtenberg, S.R.M. van de Berg, W.J. van den Broeke, M.R. Rae, J.G.L. van Meijgaard, E. |
spellingShingle |
Ligtenberg, S.R.M. van de Berg, W.J. van den Broeke, M.R. Rae, J.G.L. van Meijgaard, E. Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
author_facet |
Ligtenberg, S.R.M. van de Berg, W.J. van den Broeke, M.R. Rae, J.G.L. van Meijgaard, E. |
author_sort |
Ligtenberg, S.R.M. |
title |
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
title_short |
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
title_full |
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
title_fullStr |
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
title_sort |
future surface mass balance of the antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/275780 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
0930-7575 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/275780 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/EmbargoedAccess |
_version_ |
1772176912488071168 |