A projection of future sea level
Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible...
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1989
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ftunivutrecht:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/21036 2023-07-23T04:14:26+02:00 A projection of future sea level Oerlemans, J. 1989 image/pdf https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/21036 en eng 0165-0009 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/21036 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Natuur- en Sterrenkunde Article 1989 ftunivutrecht 2023-07-01T23:18:05Z Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water. For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the 'observed' rise. A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large (o = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found (o = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Utrecht University Repository Antarctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utrecht University Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivutrecht |
language |
English |
topic |
Natuur- en Sterrenkunde |
spellingShingle |
Natuur- en Sterrenkunde Oerlemans, J. A projection of future sea level |
topic_facet |
Natuur- en Sterrenkunde |
description |
Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water. For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the 'observed' rise. A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large (o = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found (o = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oerlemans, J. |
author_facet |
Oerlemans, J. |
author_sort |
Oerlemans, J. |
title |
A projection of future sea level |
title_short |
A projection of future sea level |
title_full |
A projection of future sea level |
title_fullStr |
A projection of future sea level |
title_full_unstemmed |
A projection of future sea level |
title_sort |
projection of future sea level |
publishDate |
1989 |
url |
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/21036 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
0165-0009 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/21036 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1772184814934294528 |