Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of...
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Copernicus GmbH
2022
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Online Access: | https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/169903 |
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ftunivturku:oai:www.utupub.fi:10024/169903 2023-05-15T17:35:50+02:00 Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary Miller P Meier H E M Lehmann A Gaget E Käyhkö J Pavón-Jordán D Christensen O B Kulinski K Kirchner N Weisse R Jaagus J Tuomi L Kjellström E Dieterich C Müller-Karulis B Quante M Carlund T Mohrholz V Kniebusch M Myrberg K. Ahola M Haapala J J Rutgersson A Galatius A Carstensen J Savchuk O P Dierschke V Reckermann M Bonsdorff E Elmgren R Carlén I Stendel M Bartosova A Börgel F Halkka A Hugelius G Lindström G Gröger M Frauen C Hünicke B Frederiksen M May W Viitasalo M Jüssi M Zhang W Zorita E Capell R ekologia ja evoluutiobiologia, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology maantiede, Geography 2606901 2606402 2022-10-28T14:11:30Z 457 593 https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/169903 en eng Copernicus GmbH Germany Saksa DE 13 10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Earth System Dynamics 1 https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/169903 URN:NBN:fi-fe2022081154870 2190-4987 2190-4979 2022 ftunivturku 2022-11-03T00:02:19Z Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other ... Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Turku: UTUPub |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Turku: UTUPub |
op_collection_id |
ftunivturku |
language |
English |
description |
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other ... |
author2 |
ekologia ja evoluutiobiologia, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology maantiede, Geography 2606901 2606402 |
author |
Miller P Meier H E M Lehmann A Gaget E Käyhkö J Pavón-Jordán D Christensen O B Kulinski K Kirchner N Weisse R Jaagus J Tuomi L Kjellström E Dieterich C Müller-Karulis B Quante M Carlund T Mohrholz V Kniebusch M Myrberg K. Ahola M Haapala J J Rutgersson A Galatius A Carstensen J Savchuk O P Dierschke V Reckermann M Bonsdorff E Elmgren R Carlén I Stendel M Bartosova A Börgel F Halkka A Hugelius G Lindström G Gröger M Frauen C Hünicke B Frederiksen M May W Viitasalo M Jüssi M Zhang W Zorita E Capell R |
spellingShingle |
Miller P Meier H E M Lehmann A Gaget E Käyhkö J Pavón-Jordán D Christensen O B Kulinski K Kirchner N Weisse R Jaagus J Tuomi L Kjellström E Dieterich C Müller-Karulis B Quante M Carlund T Mohrholz V Kniebusch M Myrberg K. Ahola M Haapala J J Rutgersson A Galatius A Carstensen J Savchuk O P Dierschke V Reckermann M Bonsdorff E Elmgren R Carlén I Stendel M Bartosova A Börgel F Halkka A Hugelius G Lindström G Gröger M Frauen C Hünicke B Frederiksen M May W Viitasalo M Jüssi M Zhang W Zorita E Capell R Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary |
author_facet |
Miller P Meier H E M Lehmann A Gaget E Käyhkö J Pavón-Jordán D Christensen O B Kulinski K Kirchner N Weisse R Jaagus J Tuomi L Kjellström E Dieterich C Müller-Karulis B Quante M Carlund T Mohrholz V Kniebusch M Myrberg K. Ahola M Haapala J J Rutgersson A Galatius A Carstensen J Savchuk O P Dierschke V Reckermann M Bonsdorff E Elmgren R Carlén I Stendel M Bartosova A Börgel F Halkka A Hugelius G Lindström G Gröger M Frauen C Hünicke B Frederiksen M May W Viitasalo M Jüssi M Zhang W Zorita E Capell R |
author_sort |
Miller P |
title |
Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary |
title_short |
Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary |
title_full |
Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary |
title_fullStr |
Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary |
title_sort |
climate change in the baltic sea region: a summary |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/169903 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
13 10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Earth System Dynamics 1 https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/169903 URN:NBN:fi-fe2022081154870 2190-4987 2190-4979 |
_version_ |
1766135110764068864 |