Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification
Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs...
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ftunivtsydney:oai:opus.lib.uts.edu.au:10453/153980 2023-05-15T17:50:58+02:00 Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification Klein, SG Geraldi, NR Anton, A Schmidt‐Roach, S Ziegler, M Cziesielski, MJ Martin, C Rädecker, N Frölicher, TL Mumby, PJ Pandolfi, JM Suggett, DJ Voolstra, CR Aranda, M Duarte, CM 2022-01-31T21:38:08Z Print-Electronic application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10453/153980 eng eng WILEY Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.15818 Global Change Biology, 2021 1354-1013 1365-2486 http://hdl.handle.net/10453/153980 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 05 Environmental Sciences 06 Biological Sciences Ecology Journal Article 2022 ftunivtsydney 2022-03-13T13:48:45Z Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the near-term (2021-2040), mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100). We then combined these MHW intensity projections with a global data set of 1,788 experiments to assess coral attribute performance and survival under the three emissions scenarios for the near-term, mid-century and late-century in the presence and absence of OA. Although warming and OA had predominately additive impacts on the coral responses, the contribution of OA in affecting most coral attributes was minor relative to the dominant role of intensifying MHWs. However, the addition of OA led to greater decreases in photosynthesis and survival under intermediate and unrestricted emissions scenario for the mid- and late-century than if intensifying MHWs were considered as the only driver. These results show that role of OA in modulating coral responses to intensifying MHWs depended on the focal coral attribute and extremity of the scenario examined. Specifically, intensifying MHWs and OA will cause increasing instances of coral bleaching and substantial declines in coral productivity, calcification and survival within the next two decades under the low and intermediate emissions scenario. These projections suggest that corals must rapidly adapt or acclimatize to projected ocean conditions to persist, which is far more likely under a low emissions scenario and with increasing efforts to manage reefs to enhance resilience. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification University of Technology Sydney: OPUS - Open Publications of UTS Scholars |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Technology Sydney: OPUS - Open Publications of UTS Scholars |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtsydney |
language |
English |
topic |
05 Environmental Sciences 06 Biological Sciences Ecology |
spellingShingle |
05 Environmental Sciences 06 Biological Sciences Ecology Klein, SG Geraldi, NR Anton, A Schmidt‐Roach, S Ziegler, M Cziesielski, MJ Martin, C Rädecker, N Frölicher, TL Mumby, PJ Pandolfi, JM Suggett, DJ Voolstra, CR Aranda, M Duarte, CM Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
topic_facet |
05 Environmental Sciences 06 Biological Sciences Ecology |
description |
Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the near-term (2021-2040), mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100). We then combined these MHW intensity projections with a global data set of 1,788 experiments to assess coral attribute performance and survival under the three emissions scenarios for the near-term, mid-century and late-century in the presence and absence of OA. Although warming and OA had predominately additive impacts on the coral responses, the contribution of OA in affecting most coral attributes was minor relative to the dominant role of intensifying MHWs. However, the addition of OA led to greater decreases in photosynthesis and survival under intermediate and unrestricted emissions scenario for the mid- and late-century than if intensifying MHWs were considered as the only driver. These results show that role of OA in modulating coral responses to intensifying MHWs depended on the focal coral attribute and extremity of the scenario examined. Specifically, intensifying MHWs and OA will cause increasing instances of coral bleaching and substantial declines in coral productivity, calcification and survival within the next two decades under the low and intermediate emissions scenario. These projections suggest that corals must rapidly adapt or acclimatize to projected ocean conditions to persist, which is far more likely under a low emissions scenario and with increasing efforts to manage reefs to enhance resilience. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Klein, SG Geraldi, NR Anton, A Schmidt‐Roach, S Ziegler, M Cziesielski, MJ Martin, C Rädecker, N Frölicher, TL Mumby, PJ Pandolfi, JM Suggett, DJ Voolstra, CR Aranda, M Duarte, CM |
author_facet |
Klein, SG Geraldi, NR Anton, A Schmidt‐Roach, S Ziegler, M Cziesielski, MJ Martin, C Rädecker, N Frölicher, TL Mumby, PJ Pandolfi, JM Suggett, DJ Voolstra, CR Aranda, M Duarte, CM |
author_sort |
Klein, SG |
title |
Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
title_short |
Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
title_full |
Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
title_fullStr |
Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
title_sort |
projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification |
publisher |
WILEY |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10453/153980 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.15818 Global Change Biology, 2021 1354-1013 1365-2486 http://hdl.handle.net/10453/153980 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1766157915680407552 |